Prospect Resources' Zambia Copper-Gold Mine Resource Grows, LME Copper Closed Lower Overnight While SHFE Copper Edged Up [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

2026.5.22 Friday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,508/mt, dipped to $13,454.5/mt early in the session, then the price center gradually shifted upward, reaching $13,620/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $13,610/mt, down 0.33%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 273,000 lots, up 143 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,000 yuan/mt, immediately touching a low of 103,620 yuan/mt, then the price center edged up with small fluctuations, reaching a high of 104,250 yuan/mt, and ultimately moved sideways to close at 104,100 yuan/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 162,000 lots, up 1,224 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) According to Miningnews.net, Prospect Resources' Mumbezhi copper-gold mine in Zambia saw its gold resources double and copper edge up. The latest resource estimate stands at 208 million mt of ore at a copper grade of 0.42%, cobalt at 0.02%, and gold at 0.04 g/mt, equating to copper metal content of 877,100 mt, cobalt of 43,500 mt, and gold of 262,100 ounces. The company described the Mumbezhi copper-gold mine as a "Tier 1" project that "directly compares with world-class producing mines in the Zambian copper strip, with a copper equivalent grade of 0.49%." Drilling is ongoing.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 21, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2606 contract were quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with an average quote at a discount of 40 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2606 contract retreated after a rapid rise before stabilizing and rebounding, largely trading between 104,700 yuan/mt and 105,500 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 104,930 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged between 100 yuan/mt and 60 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 270 yuan/mt to a loss of 180 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the inter-month Contango price spread is expected to widen slightly, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm is expected to strengthen. During the session, downstream enterprises countered with bids for some standard-quality copper at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, while suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, and discounts did not widen significantly. Demand side, affected by high copper prices, end-users slowed down their cargo pick-up pace, finished product inventories at some processing enterprises rose, and procurement volume declined. Overall, amid weak demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the 06 contract are expected to remain at a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On May 21, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,525 yuan/mt, up 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,415 yuan/mt, up 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices and inventory both rose, end-user restocking appetite remained subdued, and overall trading activity was quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On May 21, the average warrant price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $72/mt (price range $68-76/mt); the average B/L price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $71/mt (price range $66-76/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $41/mt (price range $38-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May and early June.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 21 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,930 yuan/mt, up 1,630 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were -40 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On May 21, copper scrap prices rose 1,000 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.7, while the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.2. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,544 yuan/mt, up 508 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,580 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, the resumption of production at an Indonesian copper mine was again delayed to H2 2027. This event drove copper prices higher, but as actual market demand could not accept high prices, copper prices quickly pulled back intraday. Although copper scrap traders wanted to ship at high prices, downstream clients believed this round of copper price increases would soon be followed by a pullback and were not in a hurry to purchase at this time.
Prices: On the macro front, Iran stated that the latest US proposal had reduced negotiation differences to some extent, but disputes over the Strait of Hormuz toll issue persisted, hindering negotiation progress. The market broadly adopted a wait-and-see approach toward negotiation outcomes, and copper prices overall moved sideways. Fundamentals side, supply of both domestic and imported cargoes saw reduced arrivals, with overall spot cargo supply remaining tight; demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and overall market trading sentiment was weak. Inventory side, as of Thursday May 21, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 500 mt WoW to 243,800 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue moving sideways today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]