Silicon Metal in the Doldrums, Wafer Prices Generally Stable [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM May 20 update:

Silicon coal

Price: Silicon coal market prices were largely stable this week. Specifically, the average price of mixed silicon coal in Gansu was 980 yuan/mt, silicon granular coal averaged 1,100 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang averaged around 855 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal price range was around 1,300-1,550 yuan/mt, Shaanxi silicon coal averaged around 800-850 yuan/mt, and Inner Mongolia silicon coal was 1,250-1,290 yuan/mt.

Supply: Overall supply remained loose, and with downstream silicon plants operating at low rates overall, some coal washing plants faced certain inventory pressure.

Demand: From the weekly operating conditions of downstream silicon plants, some previously temporarily shut-down silicon plants resumed production, but the release of demand for raw material silicon coal was limited. Therefore, overall demand procurement remained at rigid demand levels. Downstream silicon plants maintained low operating rates with procurement dominated by rigid demand. Coupled with the sluggish silicon metal market, downstream silicon plants also adopted a cautious attitude toward raw material procurement, restocking on an as-needed basis.

Silicon metal

Price: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt. Spot prices were slightly weaker. Yesterday, silicon metal futures prices fluctuated around 8,450 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, as futures declined, pricing-based procurement transactions increased WoW, and silicon metal prices consolidated within a narrow range with a slightly weaker bias.

Production:

Supply side, last week, due to temporary shutdowns and furnace insulation at some northern silicon plants, the short-term silicon metal operating rate declined. The temporarily shut-down silicon furnaces have resumed production, and this week's silicon metal production is expected to increase WoW. Combined with production increases at some southwestern silicon enterprises in June, silicon metal in June is expected to show increases in both supply and demand.

Inventory:

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of May 14, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 554,000 mt, up 3,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The main transaction price was 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt, with an average of around 14,900 yuan/mt. Overall market transactions were currently mediocre, with downstream mainly consuming previous inventory and only placing small rigid-demand orders. The market was gradually entering a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream.

D4: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,900-15,200 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,800-15,200 yuan/mt, with an average of around 15,000 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 15,200-15,800 yuan/mt, with an average of around 15,500 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quoted price was 16,200-16,700 yuan/mt, with an average of around 16,450 yuan/mt.

Production:

The industry continued to implement the cyclical 35% emission reduction standard. From last week's supply perspective, supply edged up WoW. However, with some individual enterprises still having maintenance plans in the latter part of the month, overall supply is expected to contract going forward.

Inventory:

Most producers currently focused primarily on delivering pre-sold orders. Supported by this, overall upstream producer inventory levels remained relatively stable WoW.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34.1-36.1 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were relatively stable overall, with virtually no new order signing in the market. Currently, top-tier players have successive production resumption plans ahead, and the market is watching related meetings and specific production resumption developments.

Production

In May, one base resumed production and began output while another base had a production cut plan, resulting in a slight increase in total production. Polysilicon production is expected to increase significantly in June-July.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased. Order signing was limited this week and production did not change significantly, leading to a rise in inventory.

Wafer

Price

The market price of 18X wafers was 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were priced at 1.00-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were priced at 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable overall in recent days.

Production

According to SMM's latest survey, May wafer planned production was raised by approximately 10% to over 50GW, with multiple enterprises increasing production. Only two enterprises were forced to cut production due to reduced toll processing orders, and the market's toll processing landscape underwent notable adjustments.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory turned to increase. As export order demand weakened marginally recently, the wafer segment is expected to maintain a slight surplus in May.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand was priced at 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand was priced at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles was 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles were priced at 6,700-6,900 yuan/piece. Prices of large-sized crucibles declined.

Production

High-purity quartz sand enterprise planned production in May is expected to edge up slightly. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises formulated production plans in line with wafer demand, while an ex-China high-purity quartz sand enterprise postponed its production equalization plan.

Inventory

In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises purchased reasonably based on wafer planned production, and quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase.