[SMM Hot Topic] Bar and Wire Rod Exports Hit New Monthly High as Markets Outside China Continue to See Volume Growth

I. Rebar and Wire Rod Exports Hit a New Single-Month High in Nearly Five Years

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total rebar and wire rod exports in March 2026 reached 1.91 million mt, a new single-month high in nearly five years, up 62% MoM and up 16.5% YoY, with growth basically maintained at a relatively high level. Specifically, rebar exports increased by 260,000 mt MoM in March, up 37%, while wire rod exports increased by 470,000 mt MoM, with growth reaching nearly 100%, serving as the core driver of total rebar and wire rod export growth.

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

In terms of the specific situation of wire rod exports,South Korea took precedence in wire rod exports, with March exports growing significantly, up nearly 200% MoM. The reasons are twofold: on one hand, South Korea's domestic wire rod industry has continued to shrink, with some enterprises having shut down or cut production on related production lines, leading to a decline in domestic supply capacity; on the other hand, China's specialty wire rod offers clear advantages in quality and cost-effectiveness, driving sustained growth in South Korea's wire rod import demand from China.

In addition, imports of Chinese wire rod in Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and Turkey also showed substantial growth. This was mainly attributable to these countries' vigorous promotion of infrastructure construction, with steadily rising demand for wire rod from related projects, thereby significantly boosting import volumes.

II. Total Rebar and Wire Rod Exports First Declined Then Rose

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

In recent years, China's rebar and wire rod exports have exhibited a phased trend of first declining then rising, which can be broadly divided into two distinct development stages. The first was the export decline phase from 2017 to 2020. During this period, China implemented supply-side reforms, with large amounts of outdated capacity eliminated and cleared from the market, total market supply contracted, and domestic steel mills entered a tight balance phase of supply and demand, with insufficient price advantages and limited exports. Particularly during 2020-2021, a wave of concentrated production resumptions occurred after the pandemic, demand surged, steel prices rose sharply, driving steel imports while exports declined accordingly.

The second was the rising phase from 2022 to present. Driven by multiple factors, China's rebar and wire rod export trajectory fully reversed, entering a sustained growth channel. First, China's real estate industry entered a downcycle, with domestic demand for construction-grade rebar and wire rod continuously declining, overcapacity pressure becoming prominent, and steel mills proactively exploring markets outside China with significantly enhanced willingness to export. Second, Belt and Road Initiative projects and ex-China infrastructure projects continued to materialize, providing stable external demand support for rebar and wire rod exports. Third, China's production-side cost advantages were prominent, the price spread between domestic and overseas steel widened, export profit margins were ample, and enterprise export enthusiasm was boosted. Furthermore, against the backdrop of global trade pattern restructuring, leveraging product quality and cost-effectiveness advantages, China's rebar and wire rod gradually replaced market shares of other competing countries, further driving steady export volume growth.

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

By product, wire rod export growth was faster than rebar, primarily due to its demand-side resilience advantages and supply-side industrial tilt.Specifically, wire rod downstream applications cover not only construction sectors such as infrastructure and housing construction, but also industrial fields including machinery manufacturing, automotive parts, and hardware processing, with demand resilience stronger than rebar. On the other hand, for steel mills, wire rod export profit margins are larger than rebar, making mills more willing to produce wire rod, with the industry actively tilting toward it.

III. Asia Takes Precedence in Rebar and Wire Rod Exports, with Slight Changes in Country-Level Shares

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

Overall, the market distribution of China's wire rod exports was relatively stable, with Asia consistently in the primary position, and South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam continuously ranking at the top. Notably, driven by the rapid development of the African construction market, the share of wire rod exports to Africa rose notably compared to 2022. According to statistics from the African Development Bank, Africa is in a rapid urbanization cycle, with its urbanization rate growing at approximately 3.5% per year, and is expected to exceed 60% by 2050. Rapid urbanization implies massive demand for housing, roads, bridges, water supply, and power supply facilities. Coupled with the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative and China-Africa cooperation, as well as the implementation of large-scale infrastructure construction plans by local African governments, local rebar and wire rod demand has continued to grow.

Data source: SMM

Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM

Rebar exports side, Asia also took precedence, followed by Europe. In recent years, driven by the rapid development of the African construction market, China's rebar export share to Africa has been continuously increasing. Looking at the breakdown of Asian countries, rebar export destinations have undergone notable changes. South Korea's economic growth slowed down with weak construction demand; Indonesia implemented steel import quota systems to promote its domestic steel industry development, and rebar export shares to both markets declined significantly. Going forward, South Korea's SeAH Besteel and SeAH Changwon Integrated Special Steel have filed anti-dumping complaints against Chinese specialty steel rebar. If the anti-dumping investigation is formally initiated, China's rebar export volumes to South Korea may decline further. In contrast, Hong Kong and Singapore, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects, have seen clear demand support. Moreover, mainland China's resources possess clear advantages in pricing and transportation efficiency, further enhancing supply competitiveness in these markets. The market shares of both regions have increased substantially, replacing South Korea and Indonesia as core rebar export destinations.

IV. Export Growth Forecast

According to an SMM survey, long product order volumes in China have remained at high levels since March, with steel mill order schedules currently booked through June-August. Some steel mills reported that rebar and wire rod inquiries from the Middle East have increased recently. Traders also reported that current wire rod export performance is very strong, especially in Saudi Arabia, where under the support of its Vision 2030, wire rod has rigid demand support, order-taking conditions are favorable, willingness to accept high prices is strong, and contracts are all above 4,000 mt. Supported by large-scale construction projects in the Middle East, Africa, and other regions, overall rebar and wire rod exports in 2026 are expected to achieve sustained growth.

Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

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