SMM May 14:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.07%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.3%. SHFE lead rose 0.27%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 0.87%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.01%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.49%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.25%, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel fell 1.52%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.8%.
Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper fell 1.08%. LME aluminum fell 0.9%, and LME lead edged up 0.02%. LME zinc edged down. LME tin fell 2.76%. LME nickel fell 1.57%.
Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, and COMEX silver fell 2.2%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.04%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.6%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.28%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.27%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 4.32%, closing at 2,434 points.
As of 11:41 on May 14, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:
Spot and Fundamentals
Nickel:On May 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...
Macro Front
[Xi Jinping: The Essence of China-US Economic and Trade Relations Is Mutual Benefit and Win-Win Cooperation] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that facts have repeatedly proven that there are no winners in a trade war, the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, and equal consultation is the only correct choice in the face of differences and frictions. Yesterday, the economic and trade teams of both sides reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, which is good news for the people of both countries and for the world. Both sides should work together to maintain the current hard-won positive momentum. (CCTV News)
[Xi Jinping: Making 2026 a Historic and Landmark Year for China-US Relations That Builds on the Past and Opens Up the Future] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping emphasized that the common interests between China and the US outweigh their differences, that the success of each is an opportunity for the other, and that stability in China-US relations benefits the world. Both sides should be partners rather than rivals, achieving mutual success and shared prosperity, and forging a path of proper engagement between major countries in the new era. He looked forward to exchanging views with President Trump on major issues concerning both countries and the world, jointly steering the great ship of China-US relations on the right course, and making 2026 a historic and landmark year for China-US relations that builds on the past and opens up the future. (Xinhua)
Domestic:
[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved Net Withdrawal of 26.5 Billion Yuan on the Day]The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 26.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day.
US Dollar:
As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.48. Driven by a sharp climb in energy prices due to Middle East conflicts, the US April Producer Price Index (PPI) significantly exceeded expectations, posting the largest increase in over three years, and market bets on a Fed rate hike warmed notably. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed:US April PPI was 6% YoY, the highest level since December 2022.Expectations were 4.8%, with the prior value at 4%.US April PPI was 1.4% MoM, the largest single-month increase since March 2022,expectations were 0.5%, with the prior value at 0.5%. US April core PPI was 5.2% YoY (expectations: 4.3%, prior: 3.8%). US April core PPI was 1% MoM (expectations: 0.3%, prior: 0.1%). The money market has now priced in approximately 24 basis points of rate hikes before the Fed's June 2027 policy meeting, up from 21 basis points at Tuesday's close.The market priced in approximately a 50% probability of one rate hike within 2026.(Wallstreetcn)
According to the CME "Fed Watch," the market has now priced in a probability of over 30% for a rate hike by December. Following the unexpectedly strong US April PPI data, the market believes it is now almost harder for the US Fed to justify any interest rate cut this year. April PPI rose 1.4%, significantly higher than economists' consensus expectations of 0.5%, indicating inflationary pressures were stronger than expected and reinforcing the market's trend of repricing the interest rate path. (Jin10)
Data:
Today will see the release of UK Q1 GDP annual rate preliminary reading, UK March three-month GDP monthly rate, UK March manufacturing output monthly rate, Canada March wholesale sales monthly rate, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales monthly rate, US April import price index monthly rate, and other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; Bank of Canada releasing monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech on "Payment Innovation and Community Banking"; US President Trump making a state visit to China.
Crude oil:
As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.4%. The market continued to monitor developments in US-Iran tensions.
US Vice President Vance said on Wednesday local time: "On the negotiations with Iran, I think progress is being made. Currently focused on the diplomatic path, spoke with envoys Witkoff and Kushner this morning. The fundamental question in the negotiations right now is whether we can make enough progress to meet the red line set by Trump. That red line is very simple. He needs to be convinced that we have put enough safeguards in place to ensure Iran never possesses nuclear weapons." When asked about the previously released CPI data, Vance said: "Last month's inflation data was not ideal. The President, I, and the entire team care about the financial well-being of the American people." (Jin10)
The OPEC monthly report showed that Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production fell to 6.316 million barrels in April, the lowest since 1990. Saudi Arabia also reported to OPEC that "actual market supply," excluding volumes injected into reserves, was slightly higher than production, reaching a daily average of 6.879 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn)
Hunter Hunt, grandson of Texas oil tycoon HL Hunt, is concerned that damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure could lead to a decline in oil production over the coming years. Hunt discussed many Iran war issues, including oil production shutdowns, refinery damage, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil used to be transported. This is literally the nightmare that no one wants to see in their plans," Hunt said on Wednesday. Hunt rarely speaks publicly. He runs the 91-year-old Hunt Oil Company, which operates globally, including in Yemen and Iraqi Kurdistan. (Jin Shi Data)
Spot Market Overview:
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