Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market.
Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching."
Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification.
Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.
