US Fed's Biggest Disagreement in 34 Years, Crude Oil Surged, Base Metals Fell Across the Board, LME Aluminum, SHFE Nickel, and Silver Led Declines [Overnight Market]

SMM April 30 News:

Metals market:

Domestic base metals fell across the board in the night session. SHFE copper fell 0.43%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.96%, SHFE lead fell 0.57%. SHFE zinc fell 1.11%. SHFE tin fell 0.97%. SHFE nickel fell 1.23%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.49%, while casting aluminum continuous contract fell 0.52%.

Ferrous metals all rose in the night session, with iron ore and rebar up 0.38%, stainless steel slightly up, and hot-rolled coil up 0.24%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.7%, coke rose 0.93%.

Overseas market metals in the night session: LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.35%. LME aluminum fell 1.33%, LME lead fell 0.33%. LME zinc fell 0.91%. LME tin fell 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.95%.

Precious metals in the night session:COMEX gold fell 1.11%, COMEX silver fell 2.66%. SHFE gold fell 0.83%, SHFE silver fell 2.03%.

As of 7:07 AM on April 30, night session closing prices:

Macro front

Domestic:

[National Data Administration: Over 116,000 high-quality datasets constructed nationwide] According to the National Data Administration, the total number of high-quality datasets in China continued to grow, with data empowerment of AI showing increasingly evident results. A dataset management service platform was launched at the national level for the first time. Data is one of the fundamental supports for AI development, and high-quality datasets can be used to enhance large model training and inference capabilities. The latest data showed that as of Q1 this year, over 116,000 high-quality datasets had been constructed nationwide, with a total volume exceeding 960PB, equivalent to approximately 336 times the total digital resources of the National Library of China. (CCTV News)

[Beijing: E-bike registration regulations to take effect from May 1] Beijing's public security traffic management authorities announced that the newly revised "Beijing E-bike Registration Regulations" will officially take effect from May 1. The new regulations added registration change items including e-bike auto body color, owner, and replacement of parts, and clarified cancellation registration requirements for cases of loss, destruction, damage, vehicle return, and discontinuation of use. In addition, e-bikes over ten years old may apply for extended-use registration. Residents may apply within ten to nine days before the registration date expires, and after on-site vehicle inspection, the extended-use validity period is one year, with the option to reapply upon expiration. (CCTV News)

[Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued notice on further optimizing and adjusting local real estate policies]On April 29, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. Regarding purchase restrictions, eligible resident families may purchase one additional housing unit within Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an Xin'an sub-district areas; non-Shenzhen household families holding valid residence permits may also purchase one unit in the above areas. Regarding housing provident fund, the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for up to 70% upward adjustment. The new policy takes effect from April 30.

US dollar:

The US dollar index rose 0.33% in the night session, closing at 98.96. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but four dissenting votes emerged, making it the most divided policy meeting since 1992. Meanwhile, the Fed statement saw significant wording adjustments, explicitly noting for the first time that "the Middle East situation is contributing to heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook." Powell sent hawkish signals at the press conference, stating that "oil-related inflation impacts are still ahead" and noting that the impact of energy price shocks on real economic growth "typically takes 3 to 4 months to show up in some consumer spending data."Money markets subsequently almost abandoned bets on interest rate cuts this year and began pricing in the possibility of rate hikes in 2027.This meeting was also Powell's final press conference as chairman. The US Department of Justice had previously dropped a controversial criminal investigation into the Fed, clearing the path for Warsh's Senate confirmation process, with the Senate Banking Committee voting to advance his nomination that day. Powell stated he would remain as a Fed governor. (Wallstreetcn)

A CICC research report noted that the Fed's April meeting kept rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. However, four officials voted against, with three opposing the inclusion of easing-bias language, indicating monetary policy stance is becoming more cautious. Elevated oil prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict, combined with earlier tariff effects, are making the inflation environment more complex. Supply shocks shifting from occasional events to a new normal means policy easing space is compressed and the threshold for rate cuts will be raised. This meeting was also Powell's last as Fed chair; his successor Warsh has signaled "balance sheet reduction and rate cuts," but constrained by the committee's collective decision-making mechanism, may also find it difficult to push through rate cuts in the short term. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is low, but the path to rate cuts will also be longer, with the next cut potentially delayed to Q4.

A Huatai Securities research report noted that looking ahead, internal Fed divisions and Powell's remaining as governor raise the threshold for Fed rate cuts. Although the Fed's March dot plot indicated one rate cut still in 2026, considering that three voting members explicitly opposed retaining the "easing bias" for further cuts in the statement, Powell's remaining as a Fed governor, and the Middle East situation repeatedly pushing oil prices higher, Huatai Securities believes the threshold for a Fed rate cut in 2026 has been raised, and does not rule out the possibility of the Fed removing rate cut guidance in the June meeting dot plot. Looking ahead, easing of Middle East tensions is expected to push oil prices lower, combined with fading tariff impacts, US inflation may pull back mildly; Q2 nonfarm payroll additions are expected to cool marginally, and seasonal rises in the unemployment rate may create conditions for 1-2 rate cuts in H2, but uncertainty around the rate cut outlook has increased. (Jin10 Data)

Macro:

Data to be released today include China's April official manufacturing PMI, China's April RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France's Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, France's April CPI month-on-month preliminary reading, Switzerland's April KOF leading economic indicator, Germany's April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary reading, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary reading, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 employment cost index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI.

Also worth watching: US Fed FOMC rate decision announcement; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google earnings call; Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta earnings calls; Samsung Electronics earnings call; Bank of England rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; ECB rate decision announcement; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference.

Notably: Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE will have no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day.

Crude oil:

Both oil futures surged sharply in the night session, with WTI up 8.57% and Brent up 7.75%. With no signs of resolution to the Iran crisis, international oil prices rose for consecutive days. US President Trump stated he would not lift the blockade on Iranian ports until a deal is reached. Trump discussed extended blockade measures with oil executives; on the other hand, Iranian officials showed no signs of concession, with Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor stating that Iran would respond if the blockade continues. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial, said, "The longer the blockade lasts, the more oil prices will rise. In the long run, this waiting game could be a driver for short-term crude price increases, but it may also be exactly the condition needed to ultimately end this conflict." (Jin10 Data)

Additionally, three sources familiar with the discussions said seven OPEC+ members will likely agree to raise oil production targets again when they meet on Sunday, with the increase expected to be scaled back given the UAE's exit from the producer group. However, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to shipping due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, few producing countries can actually increase output. OPEC+ sources said that before the UAE's surprise announcement on Tuesday that it would exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, eight members of the group were expected to continue raising their production targets by 206,000 barrels per day in June, roughly similar to the increases in May and April. Sources said they will now likely continue to increase production by a similar amount, but excluding the UAE's previous share of 18,000 barrels per day. One of them said the group had not made a decision ahead of the meeting. (Jin10 Data)