[SMM Steel] VNSTEEL warns of persistent oversupply despite near-term price upcycle

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 28 Apr , 2026

[SMM Steel] Iran has halted exports of flat steel products, including plates and HRC, until May 30, following severe damage to its steel industry from ongoing conflict. Around 10 mln mt of annual capacity (25–30%) has been disrupted, impacting major producers such as Mobarakeh Steel Company and Khuzestan Steel Company. The supply shock is expected to tighten global availability, particularly for semis and flat products, while domestic industries face rising input costs. Although imports may partially stabilize Iran’s market in the short term, full production recovery could take 6–12 months or longer, with broader economic and trade impacts anticipated.

[SMM Steel] European Union announced new steel import regulations effective July 1, 2026, replacing existing safeguards. Total tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) are set at 18.35 mln mt annually, with duty-free access within quotas and a sharply higher 50% tariff applied beyond quotas (vs. 25% previously). The system will be managed quarterly, with carry-over flexibility in the first year. Key allocations include HRC (~5.2 mln mt) and coated steel products. The measure applies broadly to third countries to curb import surges and protect domestic producers, while also signaling a gradual phase-out of Russian steel imports by 2028.