Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,950.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,948.5-1,955/mt, touching a low of $1,948.5/mt. Entering the European session, driven by continued inventory drawdowns ex-China, LME lead trended higher, reaching a high of $1,970/mt before pulling back slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at $1,960.5/mt, up 0.67%.
Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,715 yuan/mt. It briefly dipped to 16,695 yuan/mt at the start of the session before rebounding to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,755 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt or 0.51%. Open interest stood at 65,139 lots, down 4,365 lots from the previous trading day.
Macro:
On the macro front: A shooting occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. Trump stated that Iran could call if it wanted to negotiate. Washington D.C. Attorney General Piro announced the suspension of the investigation into Powell. Iran's foreign minister briefly revisited and then departed Pakistan, delivering ceasefire conditions to the Pakistani side. Iran's Deputy Speaker: Mojtaba ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war status. Russian President Putin may head to Miami, US, to attend the G20 summit. Azerbaijan sold gold worth $3 billion for the first time. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued guidelines on strengthening services and management for new employment groups, mentioning enhanced governance of internet platform algorithms. Ministry of Finance: Securities transaction stamp tax revenue grew 78.1% in Q1. The CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors are allowed to participate in treasury bond futures trading.
Spot Fundamentals:
Last Friday, SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers showed reduced willingness to make shipments, with fewer quotations. Meanwhile, premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site showed little difference from the previous day. Mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above the SMM #1 lead price on an ex-works basis, while a few regions quoted at premiums of 120-150 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased and market quotations decreased, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement with limited inquiries, and spot order market trading activity declined.
Inventory: As of April 24, LME lead inventory decreased by 950 mt to 270,025 mt. As of April 23, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward.
Lead Price Forecast for Today:
Currently, the lead-acid battery industry off-season continues, with production cuts expanding among downstream factories. Lead ingot procurement demand continued to weaken, driving a gradual social inventory buildup. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises in Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions saw further increases in production cuts, shutdowns, and maintenance, with regional spot supply continuing to shrink. However, last week, the operating rate of secondary lead smelters rebounded somewhat as scrap battery raw material inventory was replenished. Overall, bullish and bearish factors in the market counterbalanced each other, compounded by uncertainties in the macro environment, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
![SHFE Lead Opened Higher with a Gap and Held Up Well, LME Lead Consolidated at Lows Before Rebounding [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/guTSZ20251217171722.jpg)
