ICSG: ICSG Expects Global Copper Cathode Oversupply in 2026, with Surplus to Expand Further in 2027

On April 23 (Thursday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that, due to slowing demand growth and increased secondary copper production, the global copper cathode market is expected to shift to an oversupply of approximately 96,000 mt in 2026, reversing a previously forecast supply deficit of 150,000 mt.

The organization also forecast that the copper cathode surplus will widen to 377,000 mt in 2027, but warned that geopolitical risks including wars in the Middle East and shifts in trade flows could impact the market's supply-demand balance.

ICSG expects global copper cathode consumption to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 2.1%, with consumption growth forecast at 2% in 2027.

China's copper demand is expected to grow 1.9% in 2026, while demand growth in other regions is projected at 1.3%. ICSG added that copper consumption in the EU and Japan will remain subdued, while Asia will continue to be the primary driver of global demand growth.

In terms of supply, global copper cathode production is expected to increase only 0.4% in 2026, mainly constrained by limited copper concentrates supply, though increased secondary copper production will partially offset this constraint; with higher copper concentrates production and new capacity coming online, copper cathode production growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2027.

ICSG stated that global copper mine production is expected to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 2.3%, due to slower production growth in the DRC, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as operational constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following issues encountered in 2025.

The organization expects global copper mine production to grow 2.3% in 2027, supported by the gradual ramp-up of new capacity, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher mine utilization rates in Indonesia and the DRC.

(Webstock Inc.)