Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports Declined in Q1 While Exports Increased [SMM Analysis]

The General Administration of Customs released import and export data for March 2026 today. Customs data showed:
Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy in March 2026 were 84,400 mt, down 5.7% YoY and up 28.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 were 240,500 mt, down 14.4% YoY.
Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy in March 2026 were 27,400 mt, up 50.8% YoY and up 106.3% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to March 2026 were 64,900 mt, up 20.7% YoY. 

Import source structure, the concentration of import origins for unwrought aluminum alloy in China remained relatively high in Q1 2026, with the top five sources accounting for approximately 76% combined. Among them, Malaysia continued to rank first with imports of 64,400 mt (27%); Russia ranked second (47,500 mt, 20%); Thailand ranked third (40,400 mt, 17%); Vietnam and South Korea ranked fourth and fifth, with imports of 18,900 mt (8%) and 11,900 mt (5%), respectively.

Export destination structure, China's unwrought aluminum alloy exports in Q1 also exhibited a concentrated pattern. The top three export markets were Japan (32,900 mt, 51%), India (8,000 mt, 12%), and Mexico (4,500 mt, 7%), while the remaining markets collectively accounted for approximately 30%, indicating a relatively stable overall export structure.

Trade mode, processing trade continued to dominate, with processing trade with supplied materials accounting for 41% and processing trade with imported materials accounting for 24%, together exceeding 60% of the total. 

Overall, China's unwrought aluminum alloy continued the pattern of "shrinking imports and strengthening exports" that began in 2025 throughout Q1 2026. Import side, disrupted by the Chinese New Year holiday, imports in February pulled back to below 70,000 mt; after the holiday, as enterprises resumed work and production, imports quickly recovered to above 80,000 mt in March. Considering that the import window had remained open for an extended period earlier and orders were arriving at ports in a concentrated manner, imports in April are expected to remain at around 80,000 mt.

However, it should be noted that since March, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have significantly strengthened expectations of global aluminum supply tightening, driving LME aluminum prices to rise rapidly, while overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices also increased in tandem. In particular, regions such as Japan and South Korea experienced localized supply tightening due to transportation disruptions, with aluminum alloy ingot prices continuing to climb, pushing ADC12 export quotes from Southeast Asia (such as Malaysia and Thailand) up to the $3,330–$3,400/mt range. As a result, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets remained inverted, with the theoretical loss on importing ADC12 into China currently exceeding 2,000 yuan/mt per mt, and the import window has closed.

Against this backdrop, China's aluminum alloy ingot imports are expected to pull back notably from May onward. Export side, the strong momentum continues, with sustained demand growth in markets outside China such as Japan and South Korea and India. High overseas market prices provide effective support, and combined with relatively ample domestic supply, the cost-effectiveness of China's aluminum alloy exports continues to improve, with export volumes expected to sustain a growth trajectory going forward.