Wells Fargo Securities' bull-case forecast for gold suggests that after last month's pullback in gold prices, gold prices could surge remarkably to $8,000 per ounce.
Before the US-Iran war broke out on February 28 this year, gold had been one of the hottest market momentum plays of the year. However, after the war began, gold prices declined. In March, gold futures prices fell nearly 11%, marking the largest single-month decline since June 2013.
But the Wall Street investment bank expects the "debasement trade" — in which central banks around the world sell fiat currencies such as the US dollar in favor of more neutral safe-haven assets — could push the precious metal to new heights.
Wells Fargo Securities' chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote: "We are in the fourth currency debasement cycle, which started in 2022."
Kwon added: "After the recent pullback in gold prices, prices are now closer to our model's fair value of $4,500 per ounce. Looking at the three drivers, all of them suggest that currency debasement will deepen further from current levels."
The strategist said that four out of five economic scenarios point to further currency debasement, and gold prices could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027 as a result. Spot gold and gold futures were last trading near $4,800 per ounce, implying more than 66% upside room.
Conversely, Kwon's bear-case forecast shows gold prices falling to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, a decline of about 17% from current levels.
Kwon uses the M2/gold ratio — M2 money supply divided by the gold price per ounce — to identify the current cycle. The analyst said the ratio shows that the latest debasement cycle began in 2022, when Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine and the US entered a rate-hiking cycle, prompting central banks worldwide to ramp up gold purchases.
Previous currency debasement cycles for gold occurred during: the Great Depression; the "Nixon Shock" — when then-President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold — and the subsequent stagflation era; the War on Terror in the early 2000s; and the subprime mortgage crisis.
Kwon added that currency debasement cycles last an average of 8.5 years, and the current cycle, at 3.5 years in, has not yet reached its halfway point.
