[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Surged Sharply on April 14 as Indonesia Released Revised Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) Plan

SMM Nickel News, April 14:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that China's total goods trade import and export value in Q1 2026 reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, with the YoY growth rate maintaining double-digit growth at 15%.

(2) According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in Q1 2026 was 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan in Q1.

Spot Market:

On April 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 600 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged significantly today, rising over 3% at one point during the morning session, and closed the morning session at 137,810 yuan/mt, up 2.67%.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed that the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula will take effect from April 15, 2026. This is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual extent of cost increases after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.