Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. Early in the session, LME lead fluctuated downward and fell to $1,873.5/mt. Bulls then stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5–1,909/mt range and an intraday high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum weakened somewhat, and LME lead edged down slightly to close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward and dipped to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%.
On the macro front:
1. Trump: The US and Iran held good and productive talks over the past two days, and any military strike on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure was postponed by five days; 2. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it had fully taken control of the Strait of Hormuz and had no need to deploy naval mines; 3. Messages had already been exchanged between Iran and the US via Egypt and Turkey; 4. The Trump administration assessed the possibility of backing the Speaker of Iran’s parliament to take power; 5. The Japanese government considered intervening in oil futures; 6. US Fed’s Goolsbee: There could be circumstances that require interest rate hikes.
Spot Fundamentals:
SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, with suppliers making shipments in line with market conditions, while spot discounts narrowed slightly from last Friday, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. In addition, among quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters, cargoes with large discounts were also hard to find. Quotations in mainstream producing areas were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a few were quoted with premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, secondary lead enterprises in north China resumed production last week, and supply increased relatively. Secondary refined lead was quoted around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprise procurement was somewhat scattered, with some mainly purchasing under long-term contracts and others buying the dip as needed, resulting in differences in market transactions.
Inventory: As of March 23, LME lead inventory decreased by 25 mt, or 0.01%, to 284,075 mt. SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from the previous high levels seen in recent days.
Today’s Lead Price Forecast:
Supply side, primary lead enterprises’ quoted discounts narrowed slightly from last Friday, and among quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site, cargoes with large discounts were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and divergences in price acceptance between upstream and downstream were evident: downstream showed low acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotations were relatively firm and willingness to sell was cautious. Demand side, downstream enterprise procurement was somewhat scattered, with some mainly purchasing under long-term contracts and others buying the dip as needed, resulting in differences in market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
![SHFE Lead Prices Lacked Upward Momentum, and the Pattern of Doldrums Was Difficult to Change [Lead Futures Brief Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mIbTL20251217171721.jpg)
![LME Lead Rebounded Strongly After Hitting Bottom; SHFE Lead Opened Higher With a Gap, Came Under Pressure, and Pulled Back [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qnyHQ20251217171721.jpeg)
