Macro Factors Continued to Weigh on the Nonferrous Metals Trend, and LME Zinc Remained Under Pressure [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary]

Zinc Morning Meeting Summary for March 23

Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,089.5/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated at highs, touching $3,114.5/mt during the session, then fluctuated downward all the way. Near the close, LME zinc dipped to $3,039/mt, then rebounded slightly and finally closed down at $3,056/mt, down $17.5/mt, or 0.57%. Trading volume decreased to 11,568 lots, and open interest fell by 2,671 lots to 206,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,000 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc touched 23,015 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward and traded below the daily average line. After hitting an intraday low of 22,715 yuan/mt, it then fluctuated upward back above the daily average line and finally closed down at 22,860 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. Trading volume decreased to 55,725 lots, and open interest fell by 751 lots to 105,000 lots.

Macro: Trump issued Iran a “48-hour ultimatum,” and Iran responded forcefully; Trump’s team was reported to have already been plotting “peace talks” with Iran, with Iran setting out six conditions; the US and Israel again struck Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility; Israel’s defense minister said strikes on Iran would be “significantly intensified”; Bessent said that sometimes escalation is necessary to ease tensions; 16 measures were introduced to remove bottlenecks and blockages for inbound tourism; two ministries issued new rules on overseas lending, raising the macro-prudential adjustment coefficient to 0.6; relevant enterprises confirmed that Tesla is expected to procure Chinese PV equipment; Huawei officially released the new-generation Ascend 950PR computing power chip.

Spot market:

Shanghai: Last Friday, purchase willingness for refined zinc in Shanghai was 2.32, and shipment sentiment was 2.7. On Friday morning, futures prices rebounded all the way, but traders’ spot quotes remained firm, and overall spot premiums were stable WoW from Thursday. Downstream enterprises had previously purchased on dips, and raw material inventory is currently sufficient. Spot transactions worsened MoM last Friday.

Guangdong: Last Friday, purchase willingness for refined zinc in Guangdong was 2.28, and sales sentiment was 2.51. Last Friday, the center of zinc prices moved higher, and downstream procurement pace slowed down. However, rising freight rates in Guangxi and Yunnan recently reduced the volume of spot cargo circulating in the market, traders maintained high quotes, and spot premiums rose.

Tianjin: Last Friday, purchase willingness for refined zinc in Tianjin was 2.23, and shipment sentiment was 2.68. Last Friday, zinc prices rebounded, and downstream buyers were cautious about purchasing at high prices, with fewer inquiries. Pricing was basically completed on Thursday. Actual transactions on Friday were average, with market trading mainly dominated by traders. Traders’ shipment premiums rose slightly, and overall market transactions weakened.

Ningbo: Last Friday, Ningbo traders’ spot quotes remained firm, and overall premiums were stable. However, on Friday morning, futures zinc prices rebounded to above 23,000 yuan/mt. In addition, downstream enterprises had actively purchased earlier, and raw material inventory was sufficient. As a result, purchase willingness for zinc ingot was low last Friday, and overall spot transactions were average.

Social inventory: On March 19, LME zinc inventory fell by 175 mt to 117,675 mt, a decrease of 0.15%; according to SMM communication, as of March 19, inventory in China declined.

Zinc Price Forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc posted a bearish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Bands forming resistance. The market was concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on base metals, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower. It is expected to remain at low levels in the short term. Last Friday, SHFE zinc also posted a bearish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Bands providing support. Although the earlier decline in zinc prices drove some destocking of zinc ingot inventory, overall inventory remained high. Coupled with macro pressure on base metals, SHFE zinc prices also remained in the doldrums.

Data Source Disclaimer: All data other than public information are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.