Off-Season Demand Coupled With the Chinese New Year Effect Led to a Significant Decline in China's SiMn Exports in January [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis: Futures Strength Fails to Offset Arrival Pressure, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Stops Falling and Rebounds] On May 7, SMM reported that stainless steel social inventory stopped falling and rebounded this week, ending the previous continuous destocking trend and shifting to a slight inventory buildup. Total inventory across the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up, rising from 945,900 mt on April 30, 2026 to 955,200 mt on May 7, up 0.98% WoW, showing a phased inventory buildup pattern. This week was the first week after the Labour Day holiday. The market gradually resumed normal trading. Driven by further strengthening of SS futures, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem. The downstream mentality of "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" became prominent. Post-holiday stainless steel spot market trading volume warmed up notably, easing inventory buildup pressure to some extent. However, the core influencing factor lay on the supply side. Current stainless steel mill profitability remained favorable, and the production schedule pace stayed high. Recent steel mill arrivals were relatively concentrated, effectively alleviating the shortage of certain specifications that previously existed in the market. Arrivals exceeding trading volume became the dominant driver pushing stainless steel social inventory to stop falling and rebound this week. Overall, although SS futures strength drove a trading recovery this week, partially offsetting some inventory pressure, the concentrated release of arrivals still dominated the inventory trend. The current high production schedule pattern at steel mills remained unchanged, and subsequent arrival pressure persists. The sustainability of the downstream trading recovery still needs to be observed. In the short term, inventory is expected to maintain slight fluctuations, and subsequent focus should be on the direction of SS futures and the pace of steel mill arrivals...

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking costs increased, squeezing coke enterprise profits. Currently, coke enterprises maintained normal shipments, with their own coke inventory at low levels, and coke production levels were generally stable with slight increases. Demand side, steel mills currently had high production enthusiasm, hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a relatively high level, sustaining rigid demand for coke. Additionally, finished steel prices rose notably after the holiday, expanding steel mill profits. In summary, the third round of coke price increase has not yet been implemented, with coke and steel enterprises continuing to negotiate. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well, remaining generally stable with slight rise.

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR) has announced a temporary suspension of its steel and rolled product manufacturing for at least four days, starting May 5, 2026, due to critical damage to the railway infrastructure connecting the plant to Black Sea ports. The logistics bottleneck, caused by repeated strikes on the Odesa-Chornomorsk bridge, has paralyzed the export of iron ore concentrate and finished steel, forcing the company to idle Blast Furnace No. 6. While the plant aimed for a 2026 production target of 5.3 million metric tons (mt) of iron ore concentrate and 3.8 million mt of crude steel, this disruption threatens to tighten the supply of long products in the European and North African markets.