Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward and hit a high of $1,938/mt. Thereafter, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead fluctuated rangebound within $1,926-1,935/mt. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and consolidating within $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly and finally closed at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices surged quickly to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, and then fluctuated downward. Although SHFE lead prices rebounded slightly during the session, the rebound was weak, and lead prices came under pressure again and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 16,555 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%.
On the macro front:
1. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. 2. Powell said it was not stagflation at present; he would not leave before the investigation ended, and might not leave even after it ended. 3. US PPI data came in above expectations across the board. 4. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it would launch the "toughest" strikes against the US and Israel. 5. The Iranian president confirmed that Iran's intelligence minister, Khatib, was killed. 6. Iran's energy facilities were attacked, and it vowed to retaliate by striking oil facilities in three Middle Eastern countries. 7. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on properly carrying out pilot work to extend rural land contracts by another 30 years after the expiration of the second round. 8. Relevant documents on establishing a negative list management mechanism for fiscal subsidies are expected to be introduced soon.
Spot Fundamentals:
SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped in line with the market. In addition, as deliverable cargoes had not yet flowed into the market in large volumes after delivery, quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were limited. Meanwhile, as lead prices rose, premiums for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters declined, with mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Secondary lead smelters held limited inventory, and spot order quotations in the market were scarce. Secondary refined lead was quoted around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with a few offers at premiums. In addition, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as lead prices rebounded, some enterprises mainly purchased through long-term contracts, while trading activity in the spot order market weakened.
Inventory: As of March 18, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day; as of March 16, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions increased slightly again.
Lead Price Forecast for Today:
China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, some smelters operated at insufficient rates, and market cargoes were tight. Imported ore: the import window has opened, and there are expectations for price increases, but enterprises have low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened for secondary lead enterprises, most producers adopted a wait-and-see stance and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed somewhat, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of both weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and changes in downstream purchasing intensity.
![LME Lead Retreated After a Rapid Rise to Close Lower, SHFE Lead Weakened Slightly [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TmYox20251217171721.jpeg)
