U.S. Faces Challenges in Securing Strategic Minerals From the DRC; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.3.5 Thursday
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and touched a high of $13,153/mt in early trading. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and dipped to $12,975/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest rose to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed to 102,080 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest rose to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) The US made some progress in securing strategic minerals from the DRC, but regional conflicts, disputed permits, and compliance requirements slowed US enterprises’ entry into the country. The DRC is the world’s largest supplier of cobalt and also has abundant copper and lithium reserves, making it a key target for the US to reduce import risks. After the two countries signed a minerals agreement in December 2025, the DRC provided the US with a list of 44 projects involving minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, tin, gold, and oil and gas. The US Department of State said the partnership was established to release investment and support the implementation of the DRC–Rwanda peace agreement brokered by the US. However, several government officials and industry executives who declined to be named said that several projects on the list were located in politically unstable areas or had disputed permits, making mining deals unable to be fast and reliable.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 4, the SHFE copper 2603 contract retreated after rapid rise following rangebound consolidation, and rallied again late in the session. The opening price was 101,340 yuan/mt. After the open, prices fluctuated between 101,350 yuan/mt and 101,660 yuan/mt, then quickly surged to a high of 102,370 yuan/mt. Prices then declined, pulling back to 101,650 yuan/mt, before rallying again late in the session; as of the close, the price was 102,100 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts was between 310 yuan/mt and 250 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper current-month import profit margin ranged from a loss of 500 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to continue a slight recovery. Futures prices fell somewhat, and downstream enterprise orders increased somewhat. From the market structure perspective, the inter-month C price spread between futures contracts narrowed somewhat, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may have declined somewhat. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at a high level, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to resume production, providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums showed a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.
(2) Guangdong: On March 4, spot prices of Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 210 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 270 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,310 yuan/mt, down 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,155 yuan/mt, down 830 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices fell notably, suppliers actively held prices firm, spot premiums rose markedly, and overall trading improved.
(3) Imported copper: On March 4, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day, with offers referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March.
(4) Secondary copper: On March 4, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 101,850 yuan/mt, down 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums was -145 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 4, copper scrap prices fell 300 yuan/mt MoM; the average price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 90,300 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,474 yuan/mt, down 221 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 265 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises still showed insufficient willingness to resume production. Although secondary copper rod enterprises had yet to resume production on a large scale, many enterprises had already resumed normal procurement and quotation activities, and transactions in the copper scrap market gradually became more active.
Prices: On the macro front, the Middle East conflict continued. The US said strikes could last more than eight weeks and the center shifted inland, while Iran warned it would attack Israel’s nuclear facilities if the US and Israel sought regime change; the US Senate failed to block military action against Iran. Despite the tense situation, the market gradually digested geopolitical risks, investors’ risk-off sentiment eased somewhat, pushing the US dollar index to pull back and supporting copper prices. Meanwhile, the US February ADP employment data beat expectations, divisions within the US Fed over the interest rate cut outlook persisted, and the White House had nominated Walsh as Fed Chairman. On the fundamentals front, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, leaving overall supply of circulating cargoes ample; demand gradually recovered, downstream purchase willingness continued to rebound, providing some support for copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to extend their uptrend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]