[Hot Topic] Hot Rolled Coil Total Inventory Expected to Reach a Turning Point for Decline in Mid-March

Published: Feb 28, 2026 14:12

Save

According to SMM data, in the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coil in 86 warehouses (large sample) surveyed by SMM was 5.3775 million mt, up 1.1404 million mt WoW, up 26.92% WoW, and up 31.57% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. In the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory accumulated significantly. By region, the markets with larger accumulations were south China, east China, and north China.

The total SMM hot-rolled coil inventory was 6.7206 million mt, up 1.3068 million mt WoW, up 24% WoW, and up 24% YoY on a lunar calendar basis, meeting previous expectations of a 20%–25% inventory increase in the first week after the holiday.

Looking ahead, considering that downstream demand is expected to gradually and orderly pick up starting in March, coupled with rising macro expectations, domestic hot-rolled coil inventory is projected to enter a destocking cycle around mid-March (the third to fourth week after the holiday).

Regarding hot-rolled coil price trends, ferrous metals traded in the doldrums in the first week after the holiday, but the most-traded rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts faced strong resistance to further declines (rebar at 3,000 points, hot-rolled coil at 3,180 points). Next week, expectations surrounding the Two Sessions, steel mill production cuts, and gradually recovering demand are likely to become the main trading themes, potentially providing some stimulus to steel prices. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to have a slight chance of strengthening, with attention on the resistance level of 3,315 for the most-traded hot-rolled coil contract. If the stimulus from the meetings falls short of expectations, prices may face a pullback risk.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

5 hours ago

[SMM Analysis] Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Hold Up Well Next Week

Outlook: Prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Shanghai are expected to operate steadily with a slight upward bias next week.

5 hours ago

7 hours ago

[SMM Silicon Steel In-Depth - Capacity Chapter] Silicon Steel Landscape Undergoes Dramatic Changes: High-End Surges, Low-End Exits the Market, Structural Capacity Reshaping Imminent!

[Silicon Steel Pattern Drastic Change: High-End Surges, Low-End Exits the Market, Structural Capacity Restructuring Is Imminent!] Looking ahead to the next five years, several silicon steel projects are currently awaiting commissioning. However, the issue of domestic silicon steel oversupply persists, and further capacity expansion is expected to intensify the supply-demand imbalance, continuously putting pressure on silicon steel prices. Meanwhile, the price of hot-rolled coil as the cost base remains firm, leading to shrinking profits for silicon steel producers. Even leading enterprises see meager profits or even losses when producing low-grade products, with only high-grade silicon steel maintaining relatively good profitability. Coupled with mandatory energy efficiency standard upgrades at the policy level, the commissioning of high-end silicon steel capacity and the phasing out of outdated capacity are imminent. The structural restructuring of silicon steel capacity has officially begun!!!

7 hours ago

[SMM Analysis] Supply and Demand Fail to Achieve Effective Alignment, GO Silicon Steel Prices Expected to Remain Stable Next Week

[Supply and Demand Sides Fail to Achieve Effective Docking, GO Silicon Steel Prices May Remain Stable Next Week] Market-wise, the silicon steel market was largely closed during the Chinese New Year. In the first week after the holiday, traders gradually resumed work, but there were no substantial transactions in the market, with the main focus being on sorting out and executing pre-holiday orders. Grain-oriented silicon steel resources shipped by steel mills during the Chinese New Year continued to arrive at ports, coupled with the fact that demand had not yet picked up in the first week after the holiday, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory in the trade sector, with both Hi-B resources and ordinary CGO grain-oriented silicon steel arriving in varying amounts.

7 hours ago