SMM Tin Morning Brief on February 26, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract hovered at highs during the night session and closed at 423,990 yuan/mt, up 5.77%.
Macro: (1) The Fujian Provincial Department of Commerce and eight other departments recently issued the "Implementation Rules for the 2026 Automobile Trade-in Program in Fujian Province." The rules stipulate that an 8% subsidy based on the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan, will be provided for trading in eligible passenger NEVs; a 6% subsidy based on the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 13,000 yuan, will be provided for trading in eligible fuel-powered passenger vehicles. (2) On February 25, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry nationwide at the end of January 2026 was 3.57 million units, down 80,000 units MoM but up 580,000 units from January 2025, indicating inventory at high levels. The inventory at the end of January 2026, combined with the estimated future sales, supports 70 days of sales, compared to 65 days in January 2023, 70 days in January 2024, and 48 days in January 2025, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in January this year. Analysis of inventory changes among NEV manufacturers shows that, with the promotion of anti-involution, industry inventory dropped to 620,000 units in September, rose to 720,000 units in January 2026, down 160,000 units from the peak but up 60,000 units from December. Recently, NEV dealers' factory and channel inventories have faced lower-than-expected market demand, resulting in overall high inventory pressure in the industry.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February, entering the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases are relatively cautious, as pre-holiday restocking has basically ended, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin to halt production for the holiday.
Spot market: Spot availability in the current market is limited, and suppliers generally maintain premiums in their quotations. Most downstream solder enterprises are still in holiday mode; although some have resumed work, they are in the final stages such as equipment debugging and factory cleaning, and actual production has not yet fully commenced. Sporadic factories that have resumed operations are mostly consuming pre-holiday inventories, prioritizing orders received before the holiday, with very low willingness for new purchases. Prices breaking through the 420,000 yuan mark again have further strengthened downstream wait-and-see sentiment towards high-priced raw materials, keeping market trading activity at low levels.
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