[SMM Tungsten Analysis] Offshore Tungsten Prices Surge Past China as Global Supply Squeeze Intensifies

Overseas Tungsten Prices Rose Sharply During Chinese New Year Holiday, European Market More Likely to Rise Than Fall

During the Chinese New Year holiday, the overseas tungsten market showed a strong upward trend. As of February 20, SMM data showed that the price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) CIF Rotterdam port was $1,750-1,850/mtu, with an average price of $1,800/mtu, up 13.56% WoW; the price of ferrotungsten (Rotterdam warehouse) was $195-205/kg W, with an average price of $200/kg W, up 1.5% WoW.

In mid-to-late February, European tungsten prices continued to rise. According to the SMM survey, downstream inventories in the European market remained tight, and downstream shortages were severe. Guided by rigid demand, there were a few transactions in the market, with transaction prices at $1,800-1,900/mtu. As Chinese enterprises basically stopped offering during the holiday, the APT price at the Rotterdam port during the holiday already exceeded the price in the Chinese market on February 13. Due to raw material shortages in the European market, each new transaction drives higher offers, making prices more likely to rise than fall.

European Scrap Tungsten Market Continued to Follow the Rise, India Expected to Catch Up After the Holiday

Driven by the continuous rise in the raw material market, the scrap tungsten market saw strengthened bullish expectations among recycling enterprises, with many choosing to hold goods in anticipation of further price increases, leading to a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of February 20, SMM data showed that European scrap tungsten drill bits were offered at €80-100/kg, with an average price of €90/kg, up 12.5% WoW; European scrap tungsten alloy blades were offered at €89/kg. Indian scrap tungsten drill bits were offered FOB at $106-110/kg, while scrap tungsten alloy blades were offered FOB at $102-106/kg, flat WoW.

Driven by the continuous surge in tungsten raw material prices, the European scrap tungsten market continued to follow the upward trend, and the price spread with the Indian and Chinese markets is gradually narrowing. Indian scrap tungsten prices mainly follow the trend in China. As China suspended offers during the Chinese New Year holiday, Indian market prices remained stable temporarily. However, according to the latest SMM survey, Indian scrap tungsten prices are expected to rise this week. Currently, the FOB offer for scrap tungsten alloy blades has been raised to $110-115/kg. At the same time, due to the holiday break of Chinese tungsten powder enterprises, raw material supply for downstream Indian carbide plants is tightening, and restocking demand is gradually emerging. Overall, against the backdrop of cost transmission from raw materials and intensifying supply-demand imbalance, Indian scrap tungsten prices are expected to continue following the upward trend.

China's Tungsten Market Rises Sharply on First Trading Day After Holiday, Long-Term Contract Prices Increase Significantly

SMM, February 24: On the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, China's spot tungsten market rose overall with strong bullish sentiment. Spot ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices concentrated around 1.05 million yuan/mt, up 25,000 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels and a cumulative increase of 380,000 yuan/mt year-to-date. Spot circulation remained tight, and suppliers maintained firm offers.

For tungsten concentrate, mine operations remained at low levels, and market transactions were mainly in small volumes. The price negotiation center for 65% wolframite concentrate moved up to above 700,000 yuan/metric ton. The SMM price closed at 701,500 yuan/metric ton today, up 5,000 yuan/metric ton from pre-holiday levels and a cumulative increase of 248,000 yuan/metric ton year-to-date. Some spot order transactions were already conducted around 705,000 yuan/metric ton.

Regarding representative pricing, a tungsten enterprise announced significantly raised long-term contract prices for the second half of February today: 55% wolframite concentrate was offered at 730,000 yuan/metric ton, up 60,000 yuan/metric ton MoM; 55% scheelite concentrate was offered at 729,000 yuan/metric ton, up 60,000 yuan/metric ton unit MoM; APT (zero-grade, national standard) was offered at 1.07 million yuan/mt, up 100,000 yuan/mt MoM. Overall, the tight supply situation in the tungsten market continued after the holiday, providing continued support for prices.