[SMM Analysis] Mn3O4 Production Recovers in November, Expected to Decline Slightly in December

In November 2025, domestic Mn3O4 production increased slightly MoM, primarily driven by rising downstream demand and the gradual release of new capacity.

Boosted by a significant price surge in lithium carbonate, LMO market activity improved in November. Although it did not return to peak season levels, procurement volume also increased MoM, directly boosting a slight rise in production schedules at Mn3O4 enterprises. Furthermore, the battery-grade segment further benefited from incremental demand for ESS batteries and power batteries, while the LMFP market maintained stable procurement volumes, pushing the overall demand center slightly higher. In contrast, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market saw relatively sluggish trading due to weak demand from the magnetic materials sector during its off-season, with the overall market remaining in a state of oversupply. In H2, the industry experienced a small peak in new capacity commissioning, as expanded capacity from some enterprises was gradually released, also providing momentum for production growth. Although Mn3O4 production costs remained under pressure in November, enterprises mitigated raw material price fluctuation risks through long-term contracts. Coupled with the room for price pass-through brought by the demand recovery, this created a positive cycle of firm price-holding sentiment and production willingness, which did not significantly dampen production enthusiasm.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as the end-use market enters the year-end off-season, LMO procurement volume is expected to contract with the inventory rebound at battery cell manufacturers. Additionally, with the pace of new capacity release gradually stabilizing, the industry is expected to return to a "rigid demand-dominated" phase. Mn3O4 production is projected to show a MoM pullback, with the decline likely controlled within 5%.