The impact of the rainy season is expected to gradually be reflected in port arrivals data, and the rate of bauxite inventory buildup is expected to slow down.

SMM August 1st News:

In terms of domestic bauxite supply, according to SMM's calculations, China's bauxite production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 4.6% MoM and 7.4% YoY. China’s domestic bauxite production remained relatively stable, and it is expected that there will be limited supply increases in the short term.

Regarding inventory, according to SMM data, in July 2025, the total inventory of bauxite raw materials at domestic alumina refineries saw an inventory buildup of approximately 3.6 million mt. As of August 1st, SMM's statistics showed that the total bauxite inventory at nine ports was 23.79 million mt, an increase of 440,000 mt from the month-end of the previous month. Fundamentals side, bauxite continued to maintain a surplus pattern, with continuous inventory buildup at ports and within alumina refineries.

SMM Brief Commentary:

Entering August, on the demand side, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase MoM, driving up bauxite demand. On the supply side, affected by the rainy season, from the end of June to July, Guinea's bauxite shipments decreased. It is expected that starting from August at the earliest, the total volume of bauxite imported by China from Guinea will begin to decline, while the increase in China’s domestic bauxite supply will be limited. With demand growth and supply decline, it is expected that the rate of bauxite inventory buildup in China will gradually slow down starting from August, and a turning point in the total bauxite inventory is expected to occur from August to September.

(Note: Starting from July 2025, Hebei province has been newly included in China’s total bauxite inventory by province, expanding the statistical scope.)