Weak US dollar coupled with tight supply leads to rapid rise in copper prices [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,871.5/mt, fluctuated to a low of $9,833.5/mt during the session, then climbed steadily to a high of $9,913.5/mt near the close, finally settling at $9,896/mt with a 1.74% gain. Trading volume reached 31,408 lots while open interest stood at 287,624 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 79,360 yuan/mt, reached a session high of 79,900 yuan/mt and low of 79,320 yuan/mt, closing at 79,790 yuan/mt with a 1.33% increase. Trading volume totaled 62,102 lots and open interest reached 204,914 lots, showing a pattern of initial upward fluctuation followed by minor volatility.

[SMM Morning Copper Meeting Summary] News: (1) According to media reports, the US Department of Commerce will announce results of its Section 232 investigations into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals within weeks. If imports of these materials are deemed to "threaten US security," additional tariffs on foreign products in these sectors are expected under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. As the July 9 deadline for tariff suspension approaches, analysts note the 232 tariffs may replace existing reciprocal tariffs per the April 2 announcement.

(2) US real GDP contracted at an annual rate of -0.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding the forecasted -0.2% decline and reversing the 2.4% Q4 2024 growth, marking the first economic contraction in three years. The downturn primarily reflected increased imports and reduced government spending. While investment and consumer spending grew, they failed to fully offset these negative factors.

Spot: (1) Shanghai: On June 26, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2507 contract were reported at 30-100 yuan/mt, averaging 65 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt MoM. With anticipated tight spot supply today, coupled with smelters increasing export volumes and constrained domestic supply in Changzhou and other regions, premiums are expected to rise steadily.

(2) Guangdong: On June 26, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from 10-100 yuan/mt, averaging 55 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt MoM. Suppliers shifted from inventory clearance to price maintenance, pushing spot premiums higher with slightly improved trading activity compared to the previous day.

(3) Imported copper: On June 26, warrant prices stood at $30-44/mt (QP July), averaging $1/mt less MoM; B/L prices were $50-80/mt (QP July), averaging $1/mt less MoM; EQ copper (CIF B/L) premiums were $4-14/mt (QP July), averaging $1/mt less MoM. Quotations reference cargoes scheduled for mid-to-late July arrival. Overall, the market's demand for non-domestic re-export B/Ls has increased.

(4) Secondary copper: On June 26, secondary copper raw material prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices stood at 72,800-73,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap reached 1,452 yuan/mt, increasing 279 yuan/mt MoM, while the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,225 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, despite steady copper prices, market availability of secondary copper raw materials declined. A secondary copper raw material yard manager reported decreasing sales volumes from dismantling plants and recycling stations, limiting procurement capacity. As copper prices rise, suppliers increasingly withhold sales, making it harder for secondary copper rod enterprises to secure sufficient raw materials by week-end. Some regions even face purchase difficulties despite price premiums.

(5) Inventories: On June 26, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 400 mt to 93,075 mt; SHFE warrant inventory increased by 2,226 mt to 23,696 mt.

Price: On the macro front, media reports indicate Trump is considering announcing Powell’s successor as early as September. Concerns about the US Fed’s future independence have weakened confidence in US monetary policy stability, with markets expecting potential aggressive US Fed interest rate cuts. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the White House stated no plans to extend the July 9 tariff suspension, with final decisions resting with the president. Renewed tariff concerns may also support copper prices. Fundamentally, smelters are increasing export efforts, leading to tight supply of domestically produced copper in multiple regions. As semi-annual settlements near conclusion, spot cargo availability is shrinking. Combined with the US dollar index hitting new lows since 2022, copper prices are expected to maintain highs today with supported floors.

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[The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team, and is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution, avoid substituting this for independent judgment, and bear no liability for decisions made based on this content.]