SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continues to Pull Back, Import Window Remains Closed [SMM Weekly Review on SHFE/LME Zinc Price Ratio]

Published: Mar 14, 2025 16:14

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[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continues to Pull Back, Import Window Remains Closed]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to pull back, fluctuating around 8.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. From the overseas market perspective, Trump escalated tariff threats against Canada, the US dollar index declined, market risk-aversion sentiment strengthened, and the US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell short of expectations, followed by US February CPI data coming in entirely below expectations.

SMM March 14 News: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio continued to pull back, fluctuating around 8.1, with the zinc ingot import window remaining closed. In the overseas market, Trump escalated tariff threats against Canada, the US dollar index declined, market risk-aversion sentiment strengthened, and the US February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell below expectations. Subsequently, the US February CPI data was entirely below expectations, and Nyrstar announced that its Hobart zinc smelter would reduce production by approximately 25% starting from April 2025. With the expectation of reduced supply, LME zinc continued to rise.

Domestically, current downstream consumption has yet to show "peak season" performance, providing weak support for prices, leading SHFE zinc to decline. Later, with the rebound in overseas macro sentiment and the news of production cuts at the Hobart zinc smelter, SHFE zinc opened higher with a gap. However, as downstream consumption still lacked significant "peak season" performance and domestic social inventory, though slightly increased, remained at historically low levels in recent years, SHFE zinc fluctuated, and the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back. It is expected that next week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio may maintain a fluctuating trend.

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