Finished Steel Demand Is Moderate, Iron Ore Prices Still Have Upward Potential [SMM Commentary]

Today, iron ore futures fluctuated repeatedly. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 780 yuan/mt, up 0.45% for the day. Traders sold goods based on market trends, while steel mills purchased as needed, with slightly increased inquiries. The market transaction atmosphere was average. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 775-780 yuan/mt, up 5-8 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 785-790 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday.

The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase. Total inventory continued to decline, remaining relatively low YoY. Notably, rebar maintained destocking even as production increased, showing strong performance and providing some support to various ferrous products. Although there were still disruptions from crude steel production restriction news during the session, market sentiment remained indifferent. In the short term, there is no imbalance in the industry, and the fundamentals of iron ore are supportive. If no substantial policies on crude steel production restrictions are introduced, iron ore prices still have the potential to break upward.

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