Domestic Bauxite Production Remains Low; Supply and Demand Stay Tightly Balanced, Bauxite Inventory Remains Low [SMM Analysis]

SMM, January 24:

According to SMM estimates, China's bauxite production in January 2025 (31 days) decreased slightly by 1.4% MoM but was up 12.2% YoY, mainly because the production halt scale in Shanxi and Henan regions in January 2024 was larger than that in January this year. Overall, domestic bauxite production remained at a low level, and the supply-demand fundamentals of domestic bauxite maintained a tight balance.

In terms of inventory, according to SMM data, the total bauxite raw material inventory of domestic alumina refineries in January 2025 slightly rebounded by 1.7% MoM but decreased by 3.8% YoY, with the overall inventory level remaining low. As of January 24, SMM statistics showed that the total bauxite inventory at nine ports was 13.95 million mt, and the port bauxite raw material inventory level also remained low. Although domestic imported bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly compared to September-November 2024 after the end of Guinea's rainy season, and the total bauxite imports in December 2024 increased by 2.63 million mt MoM, due to the high operating capacity of alumina, bauxite demand remained high. The overall supply-demand fundamentals still maintained a tight balance, and there is no significant inventory buildup expected for bauxite in the short term.

SMM Comments: In the short term, the supply-demand balance for bauxite may remain tight. However, due to the sharp decline in spot alumina prices, the profit margin of alumina has narrowed significantly, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term. Alumina refineries' willingness to accept high-priced bauxite raw materials has dropped significantly. Amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, spot bauxite prices may pull back.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)

Data Source: SMM Click on the SMM Industry Database for more information

(Mingxin Guo 021-51595800)