[SMM Hot Topic] (Review and Outlook on Steel Exports by Region) Steel Exports in 2024 Are Expected to Be Up 22.7% YoY, with Vietnam Remaining the Leading Destination in Total Export Volume

Опубликовано: Jan 24, 2025 11:31

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[SMM Hot Topic: (Review and Outlook of Steel Exports by Region) Steel Exports in 2024 Up 22.7% YoY, Vietnam Remains the Leading Destination] From the perspective of six global continents, China's steel exports in 2024 are expected to grow YoY across all regions. Africa is projected to have the highest growth rate at +33.09%, with a cumulative export volume of 13.2162 million mt. South America follows with a YoY growth of +31.18% and a total volume of 9.9179 million mt. Asia ranks third in YoY growth at +23.02%, but leads in total export volume with a cumulative 75.3089 million mt.

[SMM Hot Topic] (Review of Steel Exports by Region and Outlook) Steel Exports Are Expected to Grow 22.7% YoY in 2024, With Vietnam Remaining the Top Destination In 2024, Steel Exports to Africa Are Expected to Achieve a YoY Growth Rate of 33.09% Across the six continents, China's steel exports in 2024 are expected to grow YoY, with Africa leading the growth (+33.09%, 13.2162 million mt), followed by South America (+31.18%, 9.9179 million mt). Asia ranks third in growth rate (+23.02% YoY) but takes the top spot in total export volume (75.3089 million mt). Data Source: General Administration of Customs, SMM Southeast Asia and West Asia Markets Shine in 2024 Steel Exports, While East Asia and European and US Markets See a Pullback in YoY Growth In 2024, China's steel export markets show significant regional differences, with export volumes continuing to grow. Overall, Southeast Asia and West Asia emerge as major growth drivers, with YoY growth rates of 27.33% and 27.55%, respectively. Specifically, China's steel exports to Southeast Asia totaled 33.6935 million mt, with Vietnam maintaining its position as the largest export destination (12.6307 million mt). Thailand and the Philippines recorded export volumes of 5.0191 million mt and 4.9623 million mt, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 5.81% and 14.94%, indicating robust demand for steel in the Southeast Asian market. West Asia saw even more significant growth, with exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia reaching 5.3582 million mt and 4.653 million mt, respectively, representing YoY growth rates of 41.92% and 37.98%. Data Source: General Administration of Customs, SMM In contrast, East Asia and European and US markets experienced a pullback. Although South Korea ranked second in total export volume (7.559 million mt), its YoY growth rate declined significantly by 7.66%. The US and EU recorded total export volumes of 890,500 mt and 3.981 million mt, respectively, with YoY growth rates of only 4.88% and 8.82%, showing a pullback compared to the same period last year. Data Source: SMM 2025 Steel Export Outlook Maintaining a Large Volume Scale and a Pullback in YoY Growth Will Be the Two Main Features of China's Steel Exports in 2025. Supply and demand side, global crude steel production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.909 billion mt, increasing slightly by 17 million mt compared to 2024. On the demand side, Southeast Asia and the Middle East markets will remain key regions for steel consumption. The competitive landscape in the Asian market is expected to intensify, while demand in European and US markets may appear slightly weak. This supply-demand imbalance may continue to exert pressure on China's steel exports. In 2024, as China's steel export volumes continue to rise, some countries believe that Chinese steel products are being sold in international markets at prices below their normal value. The number of trade remedy investigations faced by China has significantly increased, with cumulative cases exceeding the total from 2021 to 2023, and the impact may materialize in 2025. On the other hand, the tariff increases imposed by Trump on Chinese goods will also affect China's indirect steel exports. Considering that these impacts will take time to materialize, SMM expects China's steel exports in 2025 to show a trend of high levels in the first half and lower levels in the second half. However, price advantages are expected to remain, so the annual steel export volume is projected to decline slightly YoY.

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