The Import Window for Lead Ingots Briefly Opened in December: Crude Lead Imports Exceeded Refined Lead [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 21:

According to customs data, export situation: In December 2024, refined lead exports totaled 747 mt, down 64.61% MoM and 95.16% YoY. From January to December, the total export volume of refined lead and lead materials was 21,993 mt, down 88.32% YoY cumulatively. Import situation: In December 2024, refined lead imports reached 4,006 mt, while lead alloy imports were 10,771 mt. From January to December, the total import volume of refined lead and lead materials was 221,181 mt, up 325.26% YoY cumulatively.

In December, frequent environmental protection incidents on the domestic supply side, such as production cuts and transportation restrictions at smelters in Henan, Anhui, and Hunan, tightened lead ingot supply, pushing lead prices to fluctuate upward. During this period, the most-traded SHFE lead 2501 contract reached a high of 17,910 yuan/mt, marking a four-month high, while LME lead also broke through $2,100/mt, hitting a one-and-a-half-month high. Additionally, in early December, LME lead inventory surged to 270,000 mt, widening the domestic-to-overseas price ratio and briefly opening the lead ingot import window. Due to lower prices of overseas crude lead smelting raw materials such as battery scrap, the profit of exporting crude lead to China exceeded that of refined lead. Data shows that in December, lead alloy imports (including overseas crude lead) were significantly higher than refined lead imports. By late December, the market showed fatigue toward news of supply-side environmental protection production cuts, coupled with year-end inventory adjustments by downstream enterprises reducing procurement, leading to lead prices gradually giving up the gains from the first half of the month.

Entering January, the price center of both domestic and overseas lead markets shifted further downward. Notably, LME lead prices fell from around $2,100/mt in early December, gradually breaking below the $2,000/mt threshold and approaching $1,900/mt. Domestic lead prices also dropped below 17,000 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound around the 16,500 yuan/mt level. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, trading activity in the domestic lead spot market has declined, and refined lead import and export volumes in January are expected to decrease compared to the previous month.