SMM, January 15:
The US December PPI data fell short of expectations, causing the US dollar index to edge lower, while crude oil continued to rise. During the day, copper prices fluctuated downward, with LME copper briefly losing the $9,100/mt level during the Asian session, hitting a low of $9,083.5/mt.
The SHFE copper 2501 contract had its last trading day today, with the futures market fluctuating downward from around 75,430 yuan/mt to approximately 75,100 yuan/mt. The settlement price was 75,370 yuan/mt, and it closed at 75,340 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt or 0.24%. The open interest stood at 1,340 lots, with a delivery volume of 6,700 mt. According to the SHFE warehouse warrant daily report, the warehouse warrants totaled 9,484 mt, with a delivery ratio of approximately 70.641.52%.
The SHFE copper 2501 contract briefly rose to 75,430 yuan/mt during the morning session before pulling back to around 75,100 yuan/mt. It closed at 75,140 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 45,907 lots. The open interest was 121,662 lots, down 8,088 lots on the day. The SHFE copper 2503 contract recorded a trading volume of 47,252 lots, with an open interest of 149,896 lots, up 1,929 lots on the day, and is expected to become the most-traded contract. The SHFE copper 2502 contract's price spread with the 2503 contract fluctuated between contango 120-60 yuan/mt during the day.
Recently, LME Asian warehouses have continued destocking, while SHFE registered warehouse warrants have bottomed out. Some overseas warehouse warrants have returned to the domestic market, providing certain support for the pre-holiday SHFE/LME price ratio window repair. In the short term, futures copper has strong bottom support. Tonight, attention will focus on the US Fed Beige Book on economic conditions. In the short term, US inflationary pressure is expected to push the US dollar index to pull back, and futures copper is expected to continue rising.
