[SMM Analysis] 2025: BYD overtakes SAIC in automobile sales, indicating the shifting Chinese automotive market

Has the "One Dominant" Pattern Been Broken?

Data shows that in the first 11 months, BYD's cumulative sales reached 3.7573 million units, up 40% YoY, while SAIC's cumulative sales were 3.53 million units, down 19.48% YoY.

Has SAIC's sales been surpassed by BYD?!!!

BYD's overtaking sends an important signal, indicating that the long-standing dominance of joint-venture cars in China's automotive market is undergoing a shift. For SAIC, this marks the first time it has lost the title of China's top car seller, a position it held firmly for nearly 20 years.

Previously, there was a saying in the market that China's automotive industry had "one dominant and three strong players." While the "three strong players" were debatable, the "one dominant" was undoubtedly SAIC, highlighting its status in the automotive market.

However, under the impact of the NEV wave, SAIC, the "super giant," has begun to show signs of fatigue.

Statistics reveal that SAIC's three major subsidiaries—SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, and SAIC-GM-Wuling—achieved sales of 1.215 million, 1.001 million, and 1.4031 million units respectively in 2023, totaling 3.619 million units. Notably, this figure was 6.1067 million units in 2018, meaning sales have dropped by over 40% in five years.

Entering 2024, SAIC's situation has become even more challenging under the pressure from domestic brands. According to official data, SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales in the first 11 months were 1.018 million units, down 5.06% YoY; SAIC GM sold 370,900 units, down 58.61% YoY; and SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 1.1605 million units, down 3.4% YoY.

Aggressive Price War

Reports indicate that SAIC launched a "fixed price" discount promotion last year, significantly cutting prices to boost sales. To drive a rebound in sales, over 100 car models from 13 brands under SAIC, including IM, Roewe, Feifan, MG, Maxus, Wuling, Baojun, Audi, and Volkswagen, offered discounts in November. Combined with trade-in subsidies, the overall discount ranged from 50% to 80%.

However, the significant price cuts have also eroded SAIC's profits. According to financial reports, as of Q3 last year, SAIC achieved revenue of 430.6 billion yuan, down 17.74% YoY; net profit was 6.907 billion yuan, down 39.45% YoY; and non-recurring net profit was 1.05 billion yuan, down 88.92% YoY.

Fortunately, under various promotional efforts, SAIC's sales rebounded in November. For example, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 180,000 new cars in November, up 12.5% YoY; SAIC Volkswagen sold 132,500 new cars, up 10.41% YoY; while SAIC GM's performance was slightly weaker, selling 56,200 new cars.

IM Begins to Scale Up

Data shows that IM achieved sales of 58,000 units in the first 11 months of this year, up 106.5% YoY. IM is currently under planning for market opportunities and technical routes in the mid-to-large MPV and SUV segments. In 2025, IM will launch four new products, including two pure electric and two range-extended models. It is expected that monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units will only be the beginning, and IM's sales in 2025 should perform well.

As an automotive giant, SAIC's lag in the past two years was mainly due to its inability to adapt to the "new era rhythm." In the era of fuel vehicles, the industry norm was "a minor facelift every three years and a major facelift every seven years." However, in the NEV era, updates occur roughly every six months, with a much faster iteration speed. Previously, SAIC Volkswagen's General Manager Jia Jianxu publicly admitted: "Our current development process is still sequential, so many things are slow."

However, after the "adaptation period" of the past few years, SAIC has clearly begun to adjust to the rhythm of the NEV era. For instance, in October, IM's IM AD map-free city NOA was officially launched nationwide, making it the fourth company in the industry to achieve "nationwide availability" of map-free city NOA.

Judging from the current progress, after enduring a tough 2024, SAIC is expected to battle for its lost market share in 2025.