SMM, January 6:
According to SMM, some metal plants have started restocking and stockpiling ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to an increase in market inquiries. Suppliers of oxides have maintained firm offers, and low-priced supplies in the market have tightened. Coupled with the temporary suspension of Myanmar ore transportation, which supports medium-heavy rare earth prices, the actual transaction prices of many rare earth products have slightly increased. The rise in spot prices and the market's expectation of continued growth in end-use demand for rare earths, such as in NEVs, have driven the rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks to rise against the trend. As of the close on January 6, the rare earth permanent magnet concept index rose by 1.21%. Among individual stocks, Wolong Real Estate and Guangdong Rising Nonferrous Metals hit the daily limit, while Galaxy Magnets, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Innuovo, and Xici Technology were among the top gainers.
Firm Oxide Offers and Tightened Low-Priced Supplies in the Market
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Spot market: Since January, the overall rare earth market has shown a relatively subdued trend. Upstream suppliers remain reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream markets have limited acceptance of high-priced products, resulting in intense price negotiations between upstream and downstream players. However, according to the latest SMM information, some metal plants have started restocking and stockpiling ahead of the Chinese New Year, with increased market inquiries and activity on January 6. According to SMM quotes, on January 6, the prices of several rare earth products rose. Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 400,000–402,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 401,000 yuan/mt, up by 3,000 yuan/mt or 0.75% from the previous trading day.
According to SMM, most magnetic material enterprises are expected to halt production and begin their holidays around January 20. Under such circumstances, the price trend of Pr-Nd products is expected to remain stable in the short term. On the other hand, medium-heavy rare earth prices may fluctuate upward due to the temporary suspension of Myanmar ore transportation. In the current market context, SMM expects oxide supply to be relatively tight after the Chinese New Year. In February, oxide prices may continue the slight upward trend seen before the holiday in early February. However, as the operating rates of separation plants gradually recover, rare earth prices are also expected to stabilize.
Voices from Various Sides
Guotai Junan Securities believes that as China's rare earth quotas shift from a strong supply release cycle to a supply-constrained pattern, coupled with overseas plans for incremental supply being slow to materialize, the effectiveness of supply-side constraints is becoming evident. The continued growth in demand for NEVs and wind power, along with the equipment upgrade demand for industrial motors, is expected to significantly lift the demand curve for 2025–2026, potentially succeeding NEVs as a major driver of rare earth demand growth. Additionally, the expansion of application scenarios for robots may usher in another growth year for rare earth magnetic materials in 2025.
CITIC Securities' research report pointed out that under the dual drivers of AI large models and policy support, the robotics industry is expected to experience rapid development. High-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials, known for their high reliability and stability, are ideal materials for robot servo motors and are expected to benefit significantly. In the NEV sector, driven by intelligent driving, the demand for magnetic materials is expected to maintain rapid growth. With the continuous emergence of momentum in humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, emerging fields are likely to become the core drivers of long-term growth in high-performance NdFeB demand. The rare earth permanent magnet sector is continuously recommended for its strategic allocation value.
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