Is It Possible for Lithium Carbonate Prices to Rebound in H2 2025 in an Optimistic Scenario?

In 2024, the supply and demand structure of the lithium resource market is expected to undergo significant changes, with the overall supply increase falling short of early-year expectations. At the beginning of the year, the supply increase of lithium resources was estimated at 70,000 mt, but the actual increase did not meet expectations, mainly due to capacity issues in Australian ore, Chinese mica, and South American salt lakes. Affected by cost pressure, tail-end projects experienced delays or suspensions, and the construction progress of South American salt lake capacity was slow. In 2024, Australia's share of global lithium resource supply is expected to decrease from 32% to 27%, while South American salt lakes' share is expected to rise from 24% to 26%.

In 2025, the growth rate of lithium resource supply is expected to slow, but high-quality capacity will continue to come online. Primary lithium resources are projected to reach 1.53 million mt, up 190,000 mt YoY. Total supply is expected to reach 1.595 million mt, up 14% YoY. The increase will mainly come from salt lake capacity ramp-ups and new production, accounting for 56%, while ore capacity growth will be relatively limited. Due to weak lithium prices, companies such as Pilbara and Arcadium have reduced capital expenditures for future projects, resulting in limited new capacity coming online.

Demand side, global NEV sales in 2025 are expected to reach 20 million units, up 18% YoY, with domestic sales in China reaching 13.72 million units, up 19% YoY, and export sales reaching 1.39 million units, up 9% YoY. Global lithium demand for NEVs is projected at 880,000 mt, up 22% YoY. ESS demand is also expected to surge, with global ESS battery demand reaching 390 GWh in 2025, a YoY growth rate of 34%, corresponding to lithium consumption of 247,000 mt LCE.

Overall, global lithium resource demand in 2025 is expected to reach 1.46 million mt LCE, up 15% YoY, while supply growth is expected to slow, resulting in a supply surplus of 135,000 mt LCE, including a domestic lithium carbonate surplus of 34,000 mt. Despite the supply surplus, demand is expected to remain robust under policy support. In an optimistic scenario, lithium prices may rebound in H2 2025, with the core price range expected to be 65,000–100,000 yuan/mt LCE.