[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Off-Season Demand Affects Aluminum Prices, Short-Term Expected to Fluctuate Downward]
Macro front, the Chinese government continues efforts to boost consumption, while regional conflicts remain unresolved. Fundamentals side, although multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi implemented production cuts in December, and some capacity restarts have stalled, production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, under off-season conditions, market demand continues to weaken, with operating rates in the aluminum processing industry declining steadily, and some aluminum processing plants nearing holiday shutdowns. Overall, fundamentals side, supply-side pressure has slightly eased, but weak demand during the off-season has led to a growing risk of inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward. In the long term, attention should remain on the US Fed's future stance on interest rate cuts and changes in the pace of consumption recovery.
