Brief Analysis of Copper Cathode Rod Exports in 2024: Potential Structural Reversal in 2025 [SMM Analysis]

       With the export window opening in 2024, domestic enterprises have turned their focus to export markets, leading to a significant increase in copper wire rod exports. By November 2024, according to customs statistics, how did China's copper wire rod export volume and destinations perform? Below is a brief analysis of the relevant data:

       From the perspective of export sources, domestic copper wire rod exports were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal regions, with Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province taking the lead. There are two main reasons for this: first, east and south China are the primary production and consumption areas for domestic copper rods; second, the proximity to ports provides convenience, which also determines that the export sources are primarily from east and south China.

       As shown in the chart above, the total export volume in 2024 increased significantly, with all the growth coming from exports under Ordinary Trade, while exports under processing trade have been decreasing year by year. However, starting from December 1, 2024, the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper semis has led to copper wire rod exports shifting almost entirely to processing trade (either supplied materials or imported materials) since December. It is expected that in 2025, the export volume structure under different trade modes will reverse, with exports under imported material processing taking the dominant position.

       From the perspective of export destinations, China's copper wire rod exports were mainly directed to Southeast Asian countries. Given the advantages of tariffs and transportation distance, it is expected that even after the cancellation of tax rebates, Southeast Asian countries will remain the primary export destinations in the future.