I. Review of the Oriented Silicon Steel Market in 2024
In retrospect, the price trend of oriented silicon steel in 2024 stood out among all ferrous steel products, showing an overall "M-shaped" trajectory with relatively strong performance throughout the year.
Specifically: From January to March, as the Chinese New Year approached, most transformer enterprises gradually halted operations for holidays, leading to low market transaction volumes. The trading atmosphere for oriented silicon steel was relatively subdued, with high market inventory levels. Steel mills frequently lowered prices to take orders, resulting in weak cost support and an overall downward price trend for oriented silicon steel.
From April to June, oriented silicon steel prices fluctuated upward, primarily driven by the gradual resumption of operations in transformer enterprises, which led to an improvement in order volumes. Market demand rebounded rapidly, with a notable increase in transformer exports and sustained high prosperity in the global power equipment market. The overall trading atmosphere was active, and steel mills were optimistic, raising order prices. Under the dual strength of supply and demand and strong cost support, oriented silicon steel prices fluctuated upward.
From July to October, oriented silicon steel prices jumped initially and then pulled back. The main reasons were increased supply and the arrival of the off-season for consumption. Under the conditions of strong supply and weak demand, oriented silicon steel prices fluctuated downward. According to an SMM survey, a steel mill added a new oriented silicon steel production line in June 2024, with resources from the new line gradually entering the market. Coupled with the traditional off-season for consumption, the strong supply and weak demand led to a downward fluctuation in prices.
From October to December, oriented silicon steel prices rebounded slightly before fluctuating downward. At the end of September, overall steel prices experienced a slight rebound due to the release of strong macro policies domestically and internationally. However, prices fluctuated downward after mid-October, with the rebound failing to reach the June price peak. As the weather turned colder, the installation pace of transformers slowed, marking the arrival of the traditional off-season for oriented silicon steel. The supply side faced increasing pressure to take orders, and under the conditions of strong supply and weak demand, prices gradually declined.
II. Oriented Silicon Steel Prices in 2025 May Remain Under Pressure
Looking ahead to 2025, in terms of supply, as of the end of December 2024, an SMM survey compiled the planned production of oriented silicon steel lines by domestic steel mills for 2025.Over the next year, six new oriented silicon steel production lines are expected to be commissioned domestically, with a total capacity of approximately 700,000 mt, primarily concentrated in North and Central China. The supply side of oriented silicon steel is expected to see significant growth, while the demand side shows relatively low consumption elasticity.In summary, oriented silicon steel prices in 2025 are likely to remain under pressure.
