November Imported Copper Cathode Volume Remains High, Unlikely to Sustain in December [SMM Analysis]

       According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 3.3684 million mt of copper cathode from January to November 2024, up 5.29% YoY. Among these, imports in November reached 359,800 mt, up 0.14% MoM but down 4.99% YoY. From January to November, China exported a total of 440,700 mt of copper cathode, up 64.19% YoY. Exports in November were 11,600 mt, up 13.32% MoM but down 30.67% YoY.

       In terms of imports, the total volume of copper cathode imports in November reached 359,800 mt, up 0.14% MoM but down 4.99% YoY. Among these, the total volume of copper cathode from Africa was 129,900 mt, down 16.36% MoM, accounting for 36.1% of total imports. According to SMM analysis, due to increased year-end production and concentrated shipments from South American smelters, the total volume of copper cathode from South America remained high in November, and arrivals of nearby cargoes continued to increase. However, due to shipping schedules, the total volume of copper cathode from Africa declined in November, resulting in the total copper cathode imports in November being nearly flat compared to October.

       In terms of exports, the export volume of copper cathode in November was 11,600 mt, up 13.32% MoM. As the export window remained closed, only long-term contract copper cathode was arranged for export.

       Looking ahead, SMM expects copper cathode imports in December to see a slight decline compared to November. According to SMM, there will be more bulk shipments from South America in December, and arrivals of high-quality copper from South America are expected to increase significantly MoM. However, arrivals of nearby cargoes will mainly consist of copper cathode from Japan and South Korea, with fewer shipments from other regions. As a result, the overall copper cathode arrivals in December are expected to decline. On the export side, domestic consumption demand at year-end is expected to remain moderate, coupled with the continued closure of the export window. Except for long-term contracts, domestic smelters have no additional export plans, and copper cathode exports in December are expected to remain dominated by long-term contracts, staying flat compared to November.