In October, Indonesia's total stainless steel exports decreased by approximately 35.42% MoM as major consumer countries slowed their restocking pace in Q4 [SMM Analysis]

In October 2024, Indonesia exported approximately 1.224 million mt of stainless steel to China, down about 154,000 mt MoM, representing an 11.15% MoM decline and a 51.64% YoY decline.

By country, among the top 10 export destinations for Indonesia in October, only South Korea and Malaysia showed slight growth, while other countries experienced varying degrees of decline. Overall, the total stainless steel export volume reached only the level of February 2024, totaling 354,200 mt, down about 70,600 mt MoM. Additionally, the top 10 export destinations accounted for 99.94% of the total exports for the month, up 0.03 percentage points MoM. In October, the domestic stainless steel market in China moved downwards after a higher opening. Spot prices were boosted by monetary and fiscal policies after the National Day holiday, leading to a rebound and upward adjustment. However, the traditional "September-October peak season" underperformed expectations. Market sentiment pulled back following the high opening and subsequent decline in the futures and stock markets, while social inventory continued to build up, causing stainless steel spot prices to decline persistently. Amid weakening overseas demand, imports from Indonesia in October fell by 154,000 mt MoM. From the raw material side, in October, Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB added temporary quotas. As mines increased output, market premiums began to weaken. However, due to the sustained premiums in the earlier period, high-grade NPI faced negative feedback from weak downstream demand, leading to weak prices and continued losses for smelters. In October, leading Indonesian smelters made joint efforts to refrain from price cuts, causing high-grade NPI prices to rise sharply in the short term, which increased cost burdens for steel mills relying on externally purchased raw materials. Among those with significant declines in October, Italy, India, and Taiwan, China, saw MoM decreases of approximately 69.57%, 21.83%, and 14.23%, respectively. According to manufacturing PMI data, Italy's manufacturing sector remained below the 50 mark in October, dropping by about 1.4 percentage points MoM to 46.9. Italy faced challenges from global macroeconomic uncertainties and high energy prices across Europe, particularly rising natural gas and electricity costs, which increased manufacturing costs and limited demand for stainless steel imports. Meanwhile, India and Taiwan, China, have maintained strong demand for Indonesian stainless steel. In October, India's manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 57.5, while Taiwan, China, returned to 50. The decline in imports from Indonesia during the month was mainly due to high inventory levels in the earlier period. As manufacturing activity slightly recovered in these regions and entered Q4, their total imports of Indonesian stainless steel decreased.

By product type, in October, stainless steel scrap exports were approximately 4,100 mt, down about 18.33% MoM and up about 134.22% YoY; stainless steel billet exports were approximately 36,400 mt, up about 71.06% MoM and down about 83.96% YoY; hot-rolled stainless steel exports were approximately 214,800 mt, up about 10.29% MoM and up about 215.19% YoY; cold-rolled stainless steel exports were approximately 98,200 mt, up about 0.02% MoM and down about 5.39% YoY; stainless steel wire rod exports were approximately 19.66 mt, up about 1,128.75% MoM and up about 309.48% YoY.