Supply-Side Support Weakens, SHFE Zinc Center Slightly Declines [SMM Zinc Morning Comment Dec 9]

US November non-farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations; "Cautious" and "Gradual" become the buzzwords of US Fed officials; Trump: No plans to replace Powell, will raise tariffs, no commitment to keep the US in NATO; South Korean ruling party leader: Yoon Suk-yeol has agreed to step down early and will not interfere in South Korean politics before leaving office; Syrian opposition claims to have captured Damascus, overthrowing Assad's regime, US says it will maintain its presence in eastern Syria; Final text of the US FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act released, biosafety bill not included; PBOC increased gold holdings for the first time in six months in November, foreign reserves turned upward; Xinhua Commentary: Future monetary policy will continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments; Yu'ebao yield hits a historic low.

Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,110.5/mt, fluctuated around the daily moving average after the opening, reached a high of $3,130.5/mt, then slid all the way down to $3,053/mt during the night session, and subsequently rebounded, finally closing down at $3,072/mt, down $36/mt, a decline of 1.16%. Trading volume increased to 9,872 lots, and open interest increased by 1,125 lots to 245,000 lots. Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 40-day moving average providing support below. LME zinc inventory increased by 1,050 mt to 278,850 mt, an increase of 0.38%. US November non-farm payrolls data recorded the largest increase since March 2024, and the unemployment rate also rose. The US dollar index slightly strengthened, putting some pressure on LME zinc's performance. Attention should be paid to subsequent macroeconomic guidance.

Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2501 contract opened at 25,430 yuan/mt, briefly rose to a high of 25,535 yuan/mt after the opening, then fell all the way down to 25,255 yuan/mt, and subsequently slightly rebounded from the low, finally closing down at 25,335 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.63%. Trading volume decreased to 95,382 lots, and open interest decreased by 609 lots to 130,000 lots. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average forming resistance above. Domestic zinc concentrate TCs slightly rebounded, and smelter production in December is expected to increase MoM. Supply-side support for zinc prices may weaken, and the SHFE zinc center slightly declined.