Export Long-term Contract Quotation Period Coincides Cost Recalculation, Copper Rod FOB Processing Fees Surge by $40 [SMM Analysis]

As of the end of November, major export enterprises in the market have completely ceased ordinary trade export quotations, primarily shifting existing business to processing with supplied materials or processing with imported materials. Among them, spot order quotations are mainly conducted through processing with imported materials. On this basis, the marginal benefits of export enterprises have sharply decreased. After cost recalculation, quotations have risen significantly, and the center of import profit and loss has also increased, driving up copper rod export quotations.

According to SMM statistics, during the week of November 29, the lowest FOB processing fee for 8mm copper cathode rod exports recorded $200/mt, up $46/mt WoW, the highest recorded $260/mt, up $42/mt WoW, and the average increased by $44/mt, recording $230/mt. The lowest FOB processing fee for 2.6mm copper cathode rod exports recorded $240/mt, up $46/mt WoW, the highest recorded $295/mt, up $37/mt WoW, and the average increased by $41.5/mt, recording $267.5/mt.

With the comprehensive adjustment of quotation models and cost calculation methods, the FOB quotations for copper cathode rod exports have risen significantly. It is also worth noting that this is the period for long-term contract price negotiations, and some enterprises have started quoting for copper rod exports. Long-term contract prices have also risen. After the price adjustment, the competitive advantage of domestic copper rod exports is facing a reduction. It is expected that there will be no increase in exports next year, and some enterprises predict that export volumes in 2025 will face negative growth, giving back the increase of 2024. However, with the increasing demand for processing trade from downstream copper semis enterprises, domestic cut-throat competition among copper rod enterprises continues to intensify. In H2 2024 and currently, many copper rod enterprises have completed application of processing trade manuals or are understanding the market, and it is expected that the volume of processing trade will increase MoM in the future.

During the year-end long-term contract signing period, it is expected that domestic long-term contracts and export long-term contracts will be completed around the end of December. SMM will continue to monitor and report on the situation and price trends of long-term contracts in 2025, as well as changes in the number of export long-term contracts next year.