The import data for copper concentrates in the last two months of the year is expected to reach an average of 2.58 million mt per month [SMM Analysis]

In October 2024, China imported 2.314 million mt of copper concentrates and ores, down 4.99% MoM, up 0.19% YoY. From January to October, the cumulative import of copper ores and concentrates was 23.3984 million mt, up 3.36% YoY.

By country, the import volume of copper concentrates in October 2024 continued to decline, mainly due to reductions from Chile, Mexico, and Indonesia. In October 2024, China imported 651,100 mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 15.71% MoM, down 14.67% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of 9.26%. China imported 87,500 mt of copper concentrates from Mexico, down 46.38% MoM, down 41.32% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of 13.07%. China imported 52,100 mt of copper concentrates from Indonesia, down 43.89% MoM, down 37.08% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decrease of 15.63%.

Notably, in October 2024, China imported 642,100 mt of copper concentrates from Peru, up 33.61% MoM, up 10.15% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of 4.35%.

SMM expects China to import 7.14 million mt in metal content of copper concentrates in 2024, equivalent to 28.56 million mt, with an estimated average monthly import volume of 2.5808 million mt in November and December 2024. SMM believes that Chinese smelters are very likely to increase copper concentrate imports in the last two months due to winter stockpiling demand.