Analysis of China's Bauxite Imports: Impact of Guinea's Rainy Season Continues, Non-Mainstream Bauxite Imports Hit Five-Year Monthly High [SMM Analysis]

SMM, November 21: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2024, China imported 12.289 million mt of bauxite, up 6.4% MoM and up 10.7% YoY. From January to October, China cumulatively imported 131.74 million mt of bauxite, up 12.0% YoY. (HS code: 26060000)

By country: In October, China imported 7.597 million mt from Guinea, up 13.51% MoM and up 7.6% YoY; 3.696 million mt from Australia, down 8.8% MoM and up 8.1% YoY; 271,000 mt from Turkey; 180,000 mt from Brazil; 171,000 mt from Malaysia; 149,000 mt from Laos; 124,000 mt from Ghana; and 102,000 mt from The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire.

From January to October, China cumulatively imported 131.74 million mt of bauxite, up 12.0% YoY. By country, China imported 92.09 million mt from Guinea, accounting for 69.9% of total imports, up 11.1% YoY; 33 million mt from Australia, accounting for 25.05% of total imports, up 18.34% YoY; and 6.653 million mt of non-mainstream bauxite, accounting for 5.05% of total imports, up 33.8% compared to the same period in 2023 (excluding imports from Indonesia).

Regarding mainstream bauxite import sources: In October, China's total bauxite imports from Guinea rebounded slightly, with an absolute increase of 904,100 mt MoM. However, the absolute import volume was still significantly affected by the rainy season, with October imports down 2.89 million mt compared to July's 10.49 million mt and down 3.41 million mt compared to August's 11 million mt. In November, domestic bauxite arrivals are still overshadowed by the impact of Guinea's rainy season, and import volumes may struggle to return to pre-rainy season levels. From October to November, disruptions in Guinea's bauxite transshipment and the suspension of exports by some miners have prevented total shipment volumes from fully recovering to pre-rainy season levels, despite the diminishing impact of the rainy season.

In October, China imported 3.696 million mt of bauxite from Australia. From January to October 2024, total bauxite imports from Australia amounted to 33 million mt, with an absolute increase of 5.113 million mt, mainly due to the expansion of bauxite projects in Australia and a surplus of bauxite resulting from alumina production cuts.

Regarding non-mainstream bauxite import sources: In October 2024, China imported a total of 996,900 mt of bauxite from countries such as Turkey, Brazil, Malaysia, Laos, Ghana, and The Republic of Côte d'Ivoire, accounting for 8.1% of total imports in October. The total volume of non-mainstream bauxite imports hit a five-year monthly high. The continued activity in non-mainstream bauxite trade reflects a certain degree of domestic bauxite supply deficit, especially as alumina profitability remains considerable, increasing the willingness of alumina enterprises to accept non-mainstream bauxite.

SMM Brief Comment: In October, Guinea's bauxite import volume remained low as expected, aligning with previous forecasts. In November, the impact of Guinea's rainy season is expected to continue affecting domestic arrivals. In December, due to the recent suspension of bauxite exports by some miners in Guinea and the impact on shipments, Guinea's bauxite import volume is expected to remain low compared to pre-rainy season levels. However, from the perspective of shipment data, some companies have shown increased bauxite shipments after the rainy season, with weekly port departures of bauxite rebounding from rainy season levels, suggesting a slight increase in Guinea's bauxite import volume.