SMM, November 20 - According to customs data, China imported a total of 690,900 mt of FeNi in October 2024, down 6.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY. In terms of metal content, the total imported FeNi in October was 85,000 mt (Ni contained), down 5.8% MoM and 26.6% YoY. By category, both NPI and FeNi saw slight declines in October. NPI imports were 669,000 mt, down 6.4% MoM and 22.6% YoY. In October, Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB saw an increase in new approvals, easing the tight raw material supply sentiment at smelters. Coupled with an increase in export resource tax invoices, the export quota was more relaxed compared to the previous month. Indonesia's NPI production in October increased significantly, up 7.5% MoM and 13.5% YoY. With the increase in Indonesia's laterite nickel ore supply, supplemented by externally purchased Philippine nickel ore, the supply of high-grade nickel ore to smelters boosted the average grade of Indonesian NPI. Additionally, the fluctuation downward in LME nickel prices led to a marginal loss in high-grade nickel matte profits, causing a shift back to NPI, further boosting overall production. The short-term increase in NPI has put pressure on the fundamentals, with the Morowali stainless steel production line adjusting its production pace, resulting in a 10.5% MoM increase in October production compared to September. Some of the NPI has been consumed by the increase in stainless steel production. Meanwhile, the decline in global FeNi production has led to a reliance on Indonesian NPI by stainless steel mills in other countries. According to SMM, Indonesia's NPI exports to other countries have reached a historical high this year. Moving into November, Indonesia's new capacity is still ramping up, with the shift from high-grade nickel matte to NPI continuing to rise. With limited expected increases in stainless steel production, the total volume of Indonesian exports to China is expected to increase.
Regarding FeNi, October imports were 21,800 mt, down 2.2% MoM and 46.8% YoY. In terms of metal content, it was 5,400 mt (Ni contained), up 2.9% MoM and down 43.5% YoY. By country, except for slight increases from Brazil, South Korea, and Malaysia, other countries saw declines. The total volume from New Caledonia continued to decline, down about 11.6% MoM. According to SMM, the local nickel industry was severely impacted by riots in May due to proposed electoral reforms, and Koniambo has recently shut down its operations. It is expected that New Caledonia's FeNi production will remain low, with the total volume flowing into China continuing to decline. Additionally, the total volume from Colombia also declined, down about 6.6% MoM. During the nickel price downtrend, Colombia's largest FeNi smelter, South 32, suffered significant losses, and production is expected to continue to decline. In summary, based on the production situation of major supplying countries, the total volume of FeNi that China can import is expected to maintain a downward trend in the short term.
