The cancellation of aluminum semis export tax rebates starting from December 1st, Significant divergence in domestic and overseas market trends last Friday [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Nov 18]

Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2501 contract opened at the highest point of 20,955 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward overall, reaching a low of 20,290 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,460 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decline of 1.63%. The trading volume was 283,000 lots, the open interest was 212,000 lots, with a daily increase of 13,000 lots. Last Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,522.5/mt, reached a high of $2,730/mt, a low of $2,521.5/mt, and closed at $2,656.5/mt, up $133/mt, an increase of 5.27%.

Summary: On the macro front, US October retail sales month-on-month recorded 0.4%, with September's growth revised up from 0.4% to 0.8%, reducing market bets on a US Fed interest rate cut in 2025. On the domestic fundamentals side, transportation conditions in north-west China improved, forcing a halt to the continuous destocking trend of aluminum ingot inventory, with an initial formation of an inventory inflection point. Low inventory support for aluminum prices may gradually weaken. Alumina spot cargo supply remained tight, coupled with production cuts and suspensions by some enterprises. However, recently, with official statements regarding the alumina market, alumina futures market sentiment has receded. Last Friday, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of aluminum semis export tax rebates, which will raise the export costs for export enterprises, inevitably suppressing export volumes and posing a short-term bearish impact on domestic aluminum prices. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a state of low inventory and high costs, but the support for aluminum prices is gradually weakening. Additionally, the tax rebate policy has triggered market panic sentiment, and aluminum prices are expected to move downward in the near term.