September Domestic Primary Lead Smelters Undergo Maintenance and Production Cuts, Raw Material Inventory Growth Continues [SMM Analysis]

According to the SMM production schedule survey, many primary lead smelters underwent concentrated maintenance in September, with maintenance periods ranging from 7 to 20 days. In October, except for a few smelters without full production plans, others generally resumed regular production.

The SMM survey indicates that despite maintenance and production cuts in September, domestic smelters continued raw material restocking. Medium and large-scale smelters saw an increase in days of raw material inventories, with an average increase of 1.88 days MoM to 25.95 days.

On one hand, imported lead concentrate ordered in Q3 gradually arrived, maintaining the growth of raw material inventories in smelters in Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi, etc. A large-scale smelter reported to SMM that 10,000 mt of imported ore arrived at the end of September, and they paused market bid purchases in October. However, more small and medium smelters and those not involved in imported ore trading generally maintained inventories of 20-30 days, with Q3 end inventories indeed improving compared to H1.

Entering Q4, although winter stockpiling in Henan, Inner Mongolia, etc., may cause a temporary supply-demand mismatch in the lead concentrate market, factors such as previous import replenishments and expected declines in 2024 refined lead production mean large-scale smelters have relatively sufficient inventories. Market traders expect domestic Q4 lead TC quotes to remain stable. Meanwhile, imported lead concentrate bid prices showed limited quotes of -$60 to -$30/dmt, and after the closure of the import window, spot order transactions in the imported ore trade market shrank again.