Macro bullish factors are nearing their end, putting pressure on lead prices to fall back [SMM Lead Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,097.5/mt, consolidated around the daily moving average during the Asian session, briefly touched a high of $2,110/mt, and then fluctuated downward during the European session, hitting a low of $2,047.5/mt. Before the close, it slightly rebounded and finally ended at $2,076/mt, down $30/mt, a decrease of 1.42%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2411 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 16,515 yuan/mt, then slightly rose, briefly touching a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,615 yuan/mt, down 235 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1.39%.

Macro side, the dollar continued to fluctuate upward, with strong market risk aversion sentiment. Traders are closely watching the Middle East conflict and China's stimulus measures for their impact on metal consumption. Fundamentals side, the "trade-in" policy for electric bicycles still requires ongoing attention for its effect on battery companies' orders. On the first day after the holiday, with a slightly bullish atmosphere, some purchasing demand was brought forward. After the lead price correction, downstream companies became cautious again, and transactions of primary and secondary refined lead decreased. As refined lead supply gradually recovers in October, smelters' post-holiday inventory reduction slowed, and holders continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses. Downstream buyers were cautious about price drops, showing low enthusiasm for purchasing, and lead prices may continue to fluctuate downward.