Market Concerns Over US Economic Recession Persisted, Copper Prices Slightly Declined [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,552/mt. After a slight initial decline, it rose to a high of $9,574/mt, then fell all the way down to $9,468/mt near the close. It slightly rebounded at the end, finally closing at $9,486/mt, a drop of 0.56%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest was 275,000 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2410 opened and peaked at 75,790 yuan/mt, then fell all the way down to 75,190 yuan/mt near the close. It slightly rebounded at the end, finally closing at 75,480 yuan/mt, a drop of 0.38%. Trading volume reached 32,000 lots, and open interest was 124,000 lots. On the macro side, since the US Fed initiated monetary policy easing, the US dollar has fluctuated repeatedly. Coupled with the lower-than-expected hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan last Friday, the yen came under pressure, and the US dollar index rebounded. Additionally, in a speech last Friday, US Fed Governor Waller indicated that if the job market deteriorates, a further 50 basis points rate cut might be considered. The market then adopted a cautious attitude, and concerns over a US economic recession persisted. Under this sentiment, major European stock indices collectively closed lower, and copper prices followed suit. On the fundamentals side, last Friday, due to typhoon weather, some traders reported that the pickup of imported goods was hindered, leading to a tight supply of spot copper cathode. Holders of the goods maintained firm spot premiums. On the consumption side, with the rise in copper prices last week, downstream buyers were highly cautious. Procurement demand was very strong. This week, coupled with pre-National Day stocking demand, inventory is expected to continue its downward trend. In terms of prices, supported by downstream consumption demand, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward today.