Lead Ingot Inventory Accumulation During Mid-Autumn Festival: Focus on Post-Holiday Lead-Acid Battery Consumption Changes [SMM Lead Morning Comment]

On Tuesday, LME lead opened at $2,035.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, and peaked at $2,052/mt during the European session. Due to the increase in domestic lead inventory, bulls reduced their positions, causing LME lead to plunge to $2,005.5/mt, finally closing at $2,011/mt, down 1.11%.

Due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, SHFE lead market was closed during the night session last Friday and resumed trading this morning.

Macro aspects: U.S. retail sales for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, higher than the expected -0.2%, with the previous value revised from 1.00% to 1.1%. Six percent of oil and 10% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico were halted. According to a Bank of America survey, global investor confidence improved in September for the first time since June. China's Ministry of Commerce: China and Germany had in-depth and candid exchanges on issues such as the EU's anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles.

Spot fundamentals: Due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, SHFE lead market only had three trading days this week; and today (September 18) is the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2409 contract. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, most lead-acid battery companies had holidays ranging from 1 to 3 days, while smelters, except for maintenance, generally maintained normal production. Post-holiday lead market inventory accumulation is expected to rise. Focus on changes in post-holiday downstream lead-acid battery consumption. If battery producers actively purchase lead ingots for restocking, lead prices may maintain a rebound trend.