Steel prices may fluctuate rangebound this week; be cautious about the rebound height.

Last week, the ferrous metals series showed a trend of first strengthening and then weakening. On the news front, the US Fed's rate cut expectations continued to rise. On the industry side, the seventh round of coke price cuts was implemented during the week. Driven by the macroeconomic warming expectations and the logic of pig iron bottoming out and resuming production, steel prices ran strong, and steel mill profits significantly recovered. In the spot market, both volume and price of HRC and rebar increased last week, market sentiment improved, and end-user purchasing demand expanded.

Looking ahead, according to SMM data, pig iron is about to bottom out and rebound, strengthening raw material support. For steel, the traditional peak season is approaching, coupled with enhanced macroeconomic expectations, leaving room for steel prices to rise, unless downstream demand underperforms. Due to profitability factors, some steel mills have recently shifted HRC production to construction materials. Considering that end-user steel demand still faces certain pressures at this stage, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range this week, and the rebound height should be viewed cautiously.