July Copper Tube Imports and Exports Both Decreased MoM but Remained Growth YoY [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in July 2024, copper tube imports were 1,749.2 mt, down 10.6% MoM, up 58.6% YoY. From January to July, cumulative copper tube imports were 12,810.4 mt, up 40.7% YoY. In July, copper tube exports were 32,725.9 mt, down 3.7% MoM, up 25.6% YoY. From January to July, cumulative exports were 217,898.8 mt, up 13.1% YoY.

July decline in China's copper tube import data was mainly due to weakened domestic demand, as evidenced by the drop in SMM China's copper tube operating rate. However, in a year-on-year manner, imports still showed strong growth, with domestic production supported by export orders compared to the same period last year.

July copper tube exports in China decreased MoM but increased YoY. This was primarily due to improved overseas demand YoY, but demand also entered the off-season post-July.

By country, China's import share from Thailand significantly decreased in July, dropping from 52% in June to 29%. Import share from Japan increased from 12% in June to 18%. Notably, the import share from Iran accounted for 12%, a rare occurrence among historical import sources.

According to customs data, China imported "other copper cathode tubes with an outer diameter ≤25mm" and "copper cathode tubes with an outer diameter >70mm" from Iran, both under general trade. The import volumes were 143,405 kg and 72,020 kg, respectively. Among countries importing "other copper cathode tubes with an outer diameter ≤25mm" under general trade, Iran's price per kilogram was 65.06 yuan, the lowest among importing countries. The increase in China's copper tube imports from Iran in July may be due to price factors.

In summary, with the cooling of the domestic and international air conditioning markets, copper tube imports and exports are expected to gradually decline MoM. However, due to the low base last year, YoY growth in copper tube imports and exports will still be considerable.