In June, Indonesia's stainless steel exports fell approximately 7.66% MoM, with exports  to China reaching a historically low level [SMM Analysis]

In June 2024, Indonesia exported about 70,700 mt of stainless steel to China, a decrease of approximately 87,100 mt from the previous month, representing a MoM decrease of about 55.21% and a YoY decrease of about 35.4%.

By country, among the top ten countries and regions to which Indonesia exported in June, Vietnam, India, Thailand, and China Taiwan saw a recovery in total exports compared to the previous month, while exports to China, Malaysia, Italy, and South Korea saw significant declines. Overall, the sharp decline in June's export volume was mainly due to the total exports to China falling to a low level not seen in recent years, comparable to the level in February 2023. In June, the stainless steel market in China experienced a significant supply-demand mismatch, with futures prices falling back from highs and spot prices following suit. Market panic was exacerbated by the active trading in May, which had already consumed some of the demand for the following month. Social inventories continued to accumulate, and in-plant inventories remained high. The domestic market entered a low season, cooling demand for Indonesian stainless steel. Additionally, although there was an increase in the approval of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB in June, actual mining was still lower-than-expected, leading to a shortage of raw materials for Indonesian stainless steel mills. Combined with the impact of heavy rains in Indonesia in June, which slowed down cargo transportation, these factors collectively resulted in the total exports to China reaching a historically low level in June. From the perspective of other countries, due to Turkey's anti-dumping measures against Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel, exports were redirected to neighboring countries and regions, and then re-exported to Turkey and other European countries, which became the main way for Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel to reach overseas markets. According to June data, Indonesia's exports to China Taiwan reached a yearly high of 117,800 mt, up 50.92% MoM and 33.08% YoY. Thailand, driven by the emerging NEV industry, maintained optimistic demand for high-strength and corrosion-resistant stainless steel materials, reaching a yearly high of 18,800 mt in June, up 87.39% MoM and 43.16% YoY.

By type, in June, stainless steel scrap exports were about 3,500 mt, down 15.2% MoM and up 54.85% YoY; stainless steel billet exports were about 121,000 mt, down 0.19% MoM and up 111.64% YoY; hot-rolled stainless steel exports were about 188,700 mt, up 15.74% MoM and down 5.83% YoY; cold-rolled stainless steel exports were about 58,600 mt, down 48.93% MoM and down 38.51% YoY; stainless steel wire rod exports were about 5.55 mt, up 71.83% MoM and up 130.03% YoY.